Latvian Intelligence: Putin's Regime Is Stable, Protests Unlikely

Friday, 18 August 2023

Latvian intelligence services believe that Vladimir Putin's regime appears stable at the moment, with protests being unlikely but not entirely ruled out.

As reported by Delfi, the Constitutional Protection Bureau (SAB) shared their assessments in a report. The SAB serves as a security agency with functions related to intelligence and counterintelligence.

The SAB notes that the Kremlin regime remains stable, but the situation requires constant monitoring.

The agency also highlights a "growth in socio-political apathy" within Russian society. "This trend can be observed in public opinion polls: Russian society displays caution, especially when opinions diverge from the mainstream political line," the report states, citing examples of differing "support for special operations" depending on how the question is framed.

The SAB notes that the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) incidents did not have a significant negative impact on the public perception of Putin's regime, but there are reasons to believe that support for the Wagner PMC leader has diminished.

"Before the Prigozhin incident, nearly half of Russians supported him, but after, only one-fifth did. Meanwhile, support for the Russian Ministry of Defence position increased several times: if only a tenth of the population supported it before the uprising, the figure approached two-fifths after the uprising," the report states.

Large-scale protests against the Russian government are considered unlikely but not impossible.

"While Russian society's attitude toward the war in Ukraine is complex and variable, there are currently no signals of a significant direct threat to the political stability of the Putin regime in Russia," according to the SAB.

The Latvian State Security Service had identified isolated direct and indirect calls on the internet to join the Russian Wagner PMC.

This week, Latvia's president called a meeting of the National Security Council on Thursday, August 17 to discuss the situation on the border with the Russian Federation and Belarus.

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