How Ukrainians are boosting Poland’s economy and solving its problems
"Ukrainians receive much more in social assistance than they pay in taxes," wrote Sławomir Mentzen, one of the leading candidates in Poland’s presidential race.
In Poland, particularly among right-wing politicians, slogans like "Ukrainians live better in Poland than Poles do" are becoming more common.
Although such claims don't quite reflect reality, they resonate with parts of Polish society. Various polls show that attitudes toward Ukrainians in Poland have worsened.
Nevertheless, in the coming decades, Ukrainians may become one of the key lifelines for the Polish economy, argues Cezary Szczepański, economist and news & innovation editor at xyz.pl, in his article Migrants saving Poland? The role of Ukrainians in the polish economy.
At the end of 2024, there were around 1.5 million Ukrainians living in Poland, nearly one million of whom were refugees who arrived after Russia’s full-scale invasion. (Only Germany hosts more Ukrainians, with 1.15 million.)
According to analysts of the National Development Bank, by the end of 2024 Ukrainians made up 5% of all workers in Poland. The Central Statistical Office reports that almost 700,000 Ukrainians were officially employed at the time.
Labour force participation among Poles (aged 15–89) is around 59%, while among Ukrainians in Poland it stands at 70–80%.
Analysts say Ukrainians contribute 0.5–2.4% to Poland’s annual GDP growth. The Central Statistical Office notes that GDP rose by 2.9% in 2024 – meaning Ukrainians are a major driver of economic growth.
Trade with Ukraine is also proving profitable. In 2024, Poland exported €11.8 billion worth of goods to Ukraine and imported €4.4 billion in return.
But what about claims that Ukrainians are hurting the financial situation of Polish citizens?
One common argument is that the influx of refugees drove up housing rental prices. In reality, prices rose by just 0.2%.
In 2024, Poland paid out 2.8 billion złoty to Ukrainians under the monthly "800+" welfare programme. However, the National Development Bank estimates that for every złoty paid, Ukrainians return 5.4 złoty to the state via taxes and economic activity.
A critical – and often overlooked – point in the debate about the impact of Ukrainians on Poland is demographics.
According to Birth Gauge, in 2024 the fertility rate in Poland was 1.12 children per woman – one of the lowest in Europe.
To sustain population replacement, the rate needs to be at least 2.2. Poland hasn’t seen such figures since the late 1980s. Since then, the birth rate has been declining steadily.
If this trend continues, the country’s pension system could collapse within a couple of decades. A labour shortage could also lead to the collapse of the real estate market.
The Central Statistical Office estimates that to maintain the current demographic balance (60 workers for every 40 pensioners), Poland needs to attract at least 2.6 million working-age people in the next decade.
Currently, only 20% of Ukrainians who arrived after the full-scale invasion plan to stay in Poland permanently. Among those who came before 2022, about 50% express a willingness to stay.
And continued populist rhetoric about Ukrainians in Poland will do little to improve the situation.