How the Polish far-right strengthened its influence and why it is risky for Ukraine

The days following the first round of Poland’s presidential election make one thing clear: the candidate from the far-right Confederation party, Sławomir Mentzen, emerged as the real winner of this vote. Taking third place with 14.8% of the vote, he secured a "golden share" – the power to impose his agenda on the election frontrunners.

As a result, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric has intensified even further during this election cycle in Poland.

Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Concessions not in Ukraine’s favour: how the Polish far-right won the golden share in the election.

According to calculations by Polish political analyst Marcin Palade, Mentzen’s public endorsement could be decisive in determining the winner of Poland’s presidential race.

However, that support won't come cheap.

On 20 May, Mentzen held a press conference where he announced that any presidential candidate seeking his backing must sign a declaration committing to certain political conditions.

Among these are blocking Ukraine’s accession to NATO and banning the deployment of troops to Ukraine.

Mentzen also demands guarantees against raising taxes, restricting cash transactions, limiting access to firearms, transferring any national powers to EU institutions.

None of these demands raised any objections from Karol Nawrocki, the opposition candidate who made it to the second round. He is supported by the Law and Justice (PiS) party but is officially running as an independent.

Nawrocki agreed to sign Mentzen’s declaration.

Meanwhile, Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate from Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform who also reached the runoff, is also competing for Mentzen’s electorate.

Trzaskowski agreed to appear on Mentzen’s show to discuss the far-right politician’s demands. While Trzaskowski clarified that he is "not guaranteeing to sign the declaration," the very fact that he accepted the invitation shows that he at least partially supports some of Mentzen’s positions.

By forcing mainstream candidates to come to his platform and debate his demands, Mentzen has succeeded in breaking the isolation of the Confederation party, which now can no longer be dismissed as untouchable.

At the same time, Trzaskowski finds himself in a difficult position after an uncertain performance in the first round.

Unexpectedly, he lost his status as the frontrunner ahead of the runoff and is now seen more as the one playing catch-up.

Yet Nawrocki’s victory is still not guaranteed. Recent experience in Romania shows that it’s possible to win even when trailing significantly, but that requires acknowledging mistakes and adjusting the campaign strategy.

So far, the candidate from Tusk’s party has failed to do that.

Trzaskowski continues to portray the runoff as a decisive battle between democracy and xenophobia, while simultaneously courting the far-right vote.

These two strategies, broadening his core electorate and flirting with the far right, are largely incompatible.

As a result, there’s a real risk that neither strategy will work.

On Friday, 23 May 23, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will face off in a debate. That event may already reveal how much each candidate’s rhetoric has shifted toward appealing to the right-wing electorate. The next day, Trzaskowski will appear on Mentzen’s show.

One thing is certain: the current success of the Polish far right threatens to cause serious problems for Ukraine.