47% of Ukrainians have positive expectations from US minerals deal

A poll has shown that 47% of Ukrainians, as of early May, have fairly positive expectations regarding the signing of a US critical minerals deal.

The poll, conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, also found that 22% of respondents anticipate negative consequences from the deal, 19% believe it will have no impact on Ukraine, and 12% were undecided.

Sociologists noted that the current balance of positive and negative expectations stands at +25%, indicating that positive views prevail.

In terms of regions, there are slightly fewer positive expectations in Ukraine's east and west, although in both cases, the share of those with negative expectations does not exceed a quarter, and the balance of positive and negative expectations remains positive (given the rather small sample size in each region).

The KIIS survey was conducted on 2 May by telephone, using a nationwide sample of adults residing in government-controlled areas of Ukraine. A last-minute addition to the survey included a question about the perceived impact of the agreement.

The field phase of the survey is set to continue until mid-May 2025, but as of 6 May, 561 interviews have been conducted. This sample size is sufficient to draw preliminary conclusions, with a margin of error of 5.4% at a 95% confidence level and a design effect of 1.3. According to KIIS, the final results are unlikely to differ significantly.

On 1 May, Ukraine's Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signed the minerals deal.

On 2 May, the Ukrainian government submitted the Kyiv-Washington agreement on the establishment of the Reconstruction Investment Fund to parliament for ratification.

On the same day, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed hope that parliament would ratify the minerals agreement with the US by 8 May.