How Tusk halted the right-wing comeback and what’s next for Poland
No sooner had the presidential election campaign ended in Poland than a new political race began.
The victory of Karol Nawrocki significantly increases the chances of a right-wing opposition comeback. However, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has no intention of giving up.
The vote of confidence received by his government rules out snap parliamentary elections and gives the current coalition time until autumn 2027.
Read more about Poland’s political landscape after the presidential elections and what lies ahead in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: "I don’t know the word capitulation": how Donald Tusk avoided resignation and prepares for a counteroffensive.
Immediately after the defeat of the government-backed candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential election, members of the main opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) began calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the replacement of the current government with a caretaker one.
However, on 11 June, the Polish government withstood the pressure. 243 MPs voted in favour of the vote of confidence (all 242 coalition members plus the sole independent MP, Adam Gomola).
This is, in itself, a very positive result for the coalition, indicating that the internal crisis has been overcome. This, in turn, means that the current government stands a good chance of serving its full term until the next scheduled parliamentary elections in autumn 2027.
"The executive power in Poland belongs to the government. The results of the presidential election in no way weaken our mandate. Nor do they change the principles of our political system. Ahead of us are two and a half years of full mobilisation," the Prime Minister declared.
Recent polling shows that Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition remains the favourite among Polish voters, but his coalition partners may fail to make it into the next parliament altogether.
This opens the door to a scenario in which only three political forces enter the Sejm: Tusk’s bloc, Law and Justice (PiS, with 28.3%) and Confederation (20.7%). In such a case, a coalition could potentially be formed between the latter two parties.
Donald Tusk has just over two years to change the political equation.
The first step: a cabinet reshuffle planned for July. Announcing "new faces" in the government, Tusk emphasised that the renewal would mean "not just a change of names, but primarily a change in structure."
But reshuffling the government is not enough. Its effective functioning must also be ensured.
This may be hindered by the diversity within the coalition, where some parties could block agreed-upon reforms.
Furthermore, the outcome of the next election depends on whether support for the Civic Coalition’s current partners can be revived.
Thus, Donald Tusk himself must adjust his leadership style, which tends to overshadow other government members and, consequently, other coalition parties.
Meanwhile, Poland’s president-elect Karol Nawrocki is preparing for his inauguration, scheduled for 6 August. He is expected to appoint Przemysław Czarnek, a PiS MP and former Minister of National Education, as the head of the presidential chancellery.
Within the Law and Justice party, Czarnek is considered a political heavyweight and one of its most anti-Ukrainian figures.
At the very least, this means the head of the president’s office will not moderate the new president’s critical rhetoric toward Ukraine.
Before the 2023 parliamentary elections, Czarnek was seen as a potential candidate for prime minister in a hypothetical PiS–Confederation coalition.
Therefore, his new position in the Presidential Palace may serve above all as a platform to facilitate cooperation between PiS and Confederation under the aegis of the new president, both for forming a post-election coalition and for undermining the current government.