How western energy policy became a hostage of Middle East escalation
The military conflict between Israel and Iran has pushed aside the long-standing efforts of Ukraine and its partners to focus attention on energy sanctions against Russia.
This shift in the global agenda is especially vivid at the G7 leaders’ summit that opened on 15 June in Kananaskis, Canada.
The Ukrainian agenda, which just a few weeks ago had every chance of returning to center stage thanks to new Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and discussions about expanding sanctions against the Russian "shadow fleet," has now dropped from the top of the priority list.
The move by US President Donald Trump to leave the G7 summit early, cancelling a planned meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, only confirms this assessment.
Read more about this new reality, where the war in Ukraine is no longer the dominant theme of international negotiations, and what Kyiv can do in such circumstances, in the column by Maksym Gardus, a communications expert of Razom We Stand: Not a time for new sanctions: what to expect from the G7 summit and how the Middle East war ‘saves’ Russia.
The author notes that the energy issue, particularly fluctuations in oil prices, has not only returned to the center of attention at the G7 summit but is practically dictating the pace of negotiations in Kananaskis.
After the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran in mid-June, global markets responded immediately. By Friday, 14 June, Brent crude oil prices had surged to $78.53 per barrel, nearly $6 higher than the previous week. For the first time since January 2025, the price surpassed the $78 mark, prompting speculation that the psychological threshold of $80 could be crossed in the coming days.
"Markets react not to actual losses, but to the perception that they might happen and that’s much more powerful," writes Maksym Gardus.
According to him, the situation is becoming politically difficult for G7 member states as well.
"As a result, it is already clear: oil is becoming the main barometer of the West’s political will. And the higher the price rises, the lower the chances of seeing new restrictions on Russian exports," the Razom We Stand communications specialist argues.
The draft final communiqué is not expected to include any new sanctions initiatives against Russia, and its statements on support for Ukraine merely repeat previous positions.
"This shift in focus is especially alarming in light of the latest Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including gas facilities, attacks that have caused a drop in Ukraine’s domestic gas production," the columnist warns.
He emphasises that, after more than three years of war, Western attention is shifting, and reintegrating the Ukrainian issue into the global agenda is becoming increasingly difficult.
Gardus believes the best-case outcome of the summit will be a declaration about "improving coordination of monitoring" and "closing loopholes."
"The only way to change the situation is to remind partners that the absence of tough instruments allows Russia to adapt to sanctions, recover revenues, and continue the war," the expert notes.
In his view, flexibility is needed, the ability to react quickly, to work with new coalitions, and to use narrow windows of opportunity, even if they are not directly related to the war.