How Nawrocki’s victory will deepen Poland’s crisis and strain ties with Kyiv
It was the strangest electoral campaign in modern Polish history, with an obviously qualified candidate losing by a sliver to a man who had no business being on the ballot.
Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, speaks five languages and has served as a government minister and a member of the European Parliament, whereas Karol Nawrocki, the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, was previously unknown.
Read more about what Nawrocki’s victory in the Polish presidential election in the column by Project Syndicate contributor Sławomir Sierakowski: Tusk vs. Nawrocki: where will Poland's president–prime minister showdown lead?
Sierakowski highlights that Nawrocki's candidacy was conjured out of thin air by Jarosław Kaczyński, the longtime leader of the illiberal, populist former governing party, Law and Justice (PiS).
The columnist recalls that Nawrocki has been accused of operating as a pimp at the Grand Hotel in Sopot two decades ago, and of extorting an apartment from a disabled elderly man.
"Are these the only skeletons in his closet? The answer hardly matters to Poland’s far-right voters. Like Donald Trump’s supporters, there is no level of criminality that would turn them against their tribe’s totem," Sierakowski writes.
He laments that Poles are incapable of sustaining normal, serious governance. Whatever we build, we immediately set out to destroy.
"Poles seem to have forgotten that their country once disappeared from the map of Europe; that their national security depends on competent, responsible government," Sierakowski warns.
He argues that while the outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, was mostly a comical figure – a puppet dangling from Kaczyński’s strings – Nawrocki could be much more brutal and ruthless.
And the threat that he poses, according to Sierakowski, will be magnified, because he will have the full-throated support of US President Donald Trump’s administration.
The columnist suggests that Nawrocki’s victory can be expected to sow instability beyond Poland’s borders. Polish-Ukrainian relations will undoubtedly be harmed.
"Nawrocki has openly declared that he would not agree to Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the European Union (echoing Putin’s own wishes), and he is known to have made viciously anti-Ukrainian statements in public and in private," Sierakowski reminds readers.
How did Nawrocki win? One explanation is that such an extreme accumulation of scandals during the campaign had a Trump-like boomerang effect, creating the impression that the candidate was being attacked unfairly.
"Perhaps the grimmest augury is that Poles under 40 opted for Nawrocki’s republic of xenophobes over Trzaskowski’s "modern Poland," he writes.
According to the columnist, any more serious reforms will be nonstarters, because Nawrocki, like Duda, will simply veto whatever the Sejm passes.
But presidency won’t be smooth sailing for Nawrocki.
"Poland’s war against itself is entering a new phase," Sierakowski concludes.