Why Tusk's position as PM is under threat and who might replace him

After the ruling coalition's defeat in Poland's presidential election, Prime Minister Donald Tusk finds himself in a politically precarious situation.

The prime minister reacted swiftly. He called a vote of confidence in the Sejm and plans to present a new government on 23 July. However, this reshuffle is unlikely to give the coalition a "second wind."

Instead, there is growing discussion among coalition supporters about the need for a new leadership figure.

Read more about the debate in Poland over replacing Donald Tusk as prime minister and who is emerging as the frontrunner in an article by international affairs expert Stanislav Zhelikhovskyi and European Pravda editor Yurii Panchenko: Tusk’s final cabinet? Why Poland is talking about a new PM.

The victory of Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, in Poland's presidential election was made possible not only by the consolidation of the right but also by growing voter fatigue with Prime Minister Donald Tusk's leadership.

The loss of the pro-government candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential race has been described, at best, as a "yellow card" for Donald Tusk.

After securing a vote of confidence in the Sejm, Tusk announced a cabinet reshuffle that media sources within government circles have dubbed "Tusk’s final reshuffle."

At the same time, expectations are growing that Tusk’s party, Civic Platform, may undergo another reshuffle next year, about a year before the next parliamentary elections, and that this may include replacing the prime minister himself.

The next prime minister is expected to be the person who will lead the party into the 2027 elections. And it appears that the internal competition for this role has already begun.

There is already a clear frontrunner: a politician often viewed as the ideal opponent to PiS, current Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who previously served as defence minister and speaker of the Sejm.

His potential appointment as prime minister could serve as a compromise between the liberal center and more moderate allies.

The main argument against Sikorski, however, is his age: at 62, he is only slightly younger than Tusk, who is 68.

Most likely, the PiS candidate in the next parliamentary elections will come from a younger generation.

Indeed, the third-place finish of 38-year-old Sławomir Mentzen in the presidential election signals a clear societal demand for renewal and younger political leaders–a trend that could prove dangerous to ignore.

As a result, Civic Platform is also considering other potential candidates for the future prime minister role.

These include current Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak, Finance Minister Andrzej Domański and Head of the Council of Ministers' Standing Committee Maciej Berek.

An even more surprising proposal has surfaced: the idea of appointing former Polish President Aleksander Kwaśniewski as prime minister.

Current discussions about replacing Tusk suggest that the era of Donald Tusk as the face of liberal Poland may be drawing to a close.

Given PiS’s strengthened position following Karol Nawrocki’s presidential victory, a leadership change could become necessary, either in the event of a political crisis or ahead of the 2027 elections.

Whether Tusk is willing to make that sacrifice to prevent a PiS comeback remains to be seen.