Could Norway's elections bring an unpleasant surprise for Ukraine?
On 8 September, Norway will hold parliamentary elections.
The outcome of these elections could directly affect Ukraine, as Norway is becoming one of its key allies.
Russia also clearly understands Norway’s importance. Ahead of the current elections, a new political force was created which, under the guise of "peace-making," promotes Kremlin-friendly narratives – above all, calls to stop aid to Ukraine.
Read more to learn how Norway’s government might change and whether this could affect assistance to Ukraine in the article by Iryna Kutielieva, a European Pravda journalist: Putin’s propagandists among Ukraine’s friends: what to expect from Norway’s elections.
Since February, the Labour Party government has been running Norway on its own – after the Centre Party withdrew from the coalition.
Norwegian law does not provide for early elections, so Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was forced to continue governing with a minority cabinet, relying on ad hoc parliamentary support to pass key government initiatives.
Before the coalition collapsed, the government was extremely unpopular among Norwegians: Labour was projected to receive a disastrous 16.8% support – the worst result in the party’s history.
However, Støre managed to reverse this trend. One of his most successful decisions was to invite Jens Stoltenberg to take the post of finance minister, immediately after Stoltenberg finished his term as NATO Secretary General.
Stoltenberg’s popularity boosted Labour’s ratings, helping them quickly recover lost ground in the polls. The media dubbed his return to Norwegian politics "Stoltenback," highlighting its impact on Labour’s electoral support.
As a result, the latest poll conducted by the broadcaster NRK, 12 days before the vote, showed that although Labour’s ratings had dipped slightly, they still maintained the lead with 27.6% support.
Historically, Labour’s main rival, the Conservative Party (Høyre), is now facing a catastrophic decline. In the upcoming election, they are projected to win only 14-15% of the vote.
According to polls, a quarter of those who supported the Conservatives in the last parliamentary elections have shifted further to the right and now intend to vote for the Progress Party.
The Progress Party, which has risen to second place with 21%, espouses a platform that strongly resembles typical Trumpism.
It opposes immigration from non-Christian countries, calls for stricter conditions for obtaining citizenship, and advocates for lower taxes. The party is also marked by scepticism toward climate change.
However, on Ukraine and the Russian threat, the Progress Party’s stance differs significantly from that of Europe’s far-right. The "Progressives" support continued aid to Ukraine and back increased defence spending by Norway.
A coalition between the Conservatives and the Progressives is a highly likely scenario.
Yet neither Labour nor a Conservative–Progress coalition currently has enough seats to secure an absolute majority.
This means the key intrigue of Norway’s elections may come down to the struggle for the "golden share."
Still, a change of government is unlikely to weaken support for Ukraine. Among Norwegian politicians, there is broad consensus on backing Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
But one political force stands out from this consensus – the Party for Peace and Justice (Partiet Fred og rettferdighet, or FOR). Its programme reads more like a Russian propaganda manual.
For now, polls predict the party will win just 0.2%.