What risks could a pro-Russian victory pose for Moldova and the region
On 28 September, parliamentary elections are set to be held in the Republic of Moldova, which will be crucial for the country’s future political development.
The election campaign is taking place amid an ongoing struggle over the country’s strategic direction in both foreign and domestic policy. At the heart of this debate is the preservation of European integration, which is not only critical for Moldova itself but also for Ukraine and the wider region.
Read more about the threats a pro-Russian victory in Moldova could pose to the country and the region in the article by Rostyslav Klimov of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism": Away from the EU: what would happen to Moldova if it turned toward Russia.
A victory by pro-Russian political forces in Moldova would likely lead to the formation of a government pursuing an alternative development course, potentially pivoting toward Russia.
In this scenario, President Maia Sandu, who represents the pro-European line, would effectively be sidelined from having a decisive influence on state policy.
Even the formation of a coalition with moderately pro-Russian forces would inevitably slow down European integration reforms. Such a government could turn progress into a series of compromises that would dilute the country’s strategic course.
The region already provides a cautionary example: the political backslide in Georgia over the past two years.
Within months, Georgia faced reductions in financial aid, international isolation and the suspension of military cooperation with the EU. This led to a de facto freeze in accession negotiations and a gradual reorientation of Tbilisi toward Russia. Meanwhile, Georgia began actively building political and economic ties with Moscow, moving away from its European path.
Moldova, which currently receives significant financial support from the EU, could face similar processes.
A hard pivot toward Russia would trigger a crisis in Moldova’s relations with the EU in financial, trade and political spheres.
The country risks losing tens of millions of euros annually, while key infrastructure investments in energy, transport, healthcare and education would be jeopardised. Security assistance could be quickly reduced or even suspended.
The geopolitical shift would also hit Moldova’s economy. For example, the cancellation of autonomous trade preferences and the reinstatement of restrictions could reduce agricultural exports by 10–20%. A subsequent step could even involve a temporary partial suspension of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA).
This would severely affect Moldova’s sensitive sectors, including light industry, engineering and winemaking.
The blow would extend to international partners’ trust. Loss of EU support would push the Moldovan government to seek alternative "donors," most likely Russia or other authoritarian regimes, creating new geopolitical obligations and deepening dependence, particularly in energy.
Even a softer retreat, slowing reforms without officially leaving the EU orbit, would lead to stalled negotiations, frozen assistance and rapidly rising uncertainty for businesses and society.
This is why the outcome of September’s elections is so critical for Moldova’s future: the continuation or rollback of the pro-European course depends on the newly elected lawmakers and their political will.