Why Sarkozy’s sentence changed the rules of French politics and what it means
On 21 October 2025, former French president Nicolas Sarkozy entered La Santé prison to begin a five-year sentence in the "Libya financing" case.
The sentence starts now even though he has appealed.
A former head of state has received a real prison term for the first time in France’s history. This has shattered the stereotype that the country’s leading politicians remain untouchable.
Read more about the broader consequences for French politics in the article Charlotte Guillou-Clerc from France: Prison for president: how Sarkozy's sentence changes France's political landscape.
Nicolas Sarkozy, French president in 2007–2012, was convicted on 25 September 2025 for criminal conspiracy linked to a clandestine pact with Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya to help finance his 2007 campaign.
Sarkozy denies wrongdoing and is appealing, but immediate enforcement still applies, even for a former head of state.
However, despite the appeal, the sentence took immediate effect – a standard practice under French law.
On the right, media and party voices pushed an "injustice" narrative; echoing Marine le Pen’s recent ineligibility sanction. In Parliament, Les Républicains (LR) are proposing to refine the rules around provisional enforcement.
The political consequences of this sentence are expected to be substantial.
With Sarkozy gone, LR is weaker. That leaves room for the National Rally. The only thing slowing RN is the law on Le Pen. As a reminder, she is banned from running for five years. The ban applies now, even while she has already appealed (exécution provisoire).
She can only run if her appeal overturns the decision before the election, that’s very uncertain. Judges said the immediate ban is due to the seriousness of the offences and to protect public integrity. Therefore, RN must plan under this constraint.
This constraint shifts the spotlight to Jordan Bardella as RN’s de facto leading voice.
His task is not just to inherit Le Pen’s base; it is to add Sarkozy moderates without triggering the second-round "reflex" against the far right.
At the same time, Sarkozy himself is now using rhetoric similar to Le Pen’s, framing his sentence as a "political decision." This could weaken the far right’s credibility in a potential second round of the presidential election: if everyone complains about bias, no one appears ready to govern.
Thus, Sarkozy’s sentence provides the National Rally with a chance to attract moderate conservatives, but they must follow one rule: win the center without attacking the courts.
The next presidential election in France is scheduled for 2027. The National Rally has its highest chance in years to appeal to moderate conservatives.
But this opportunity comes with a strict limitation – French institutions. If the far right wants to move toward the center, it must respect the courts and the rules.
RN can present this as equal justice: a former president is in prison and an opposition leader is barred from the ballot under the rules.
Nicolas Sarkozy is now using the same "political decision" line Marine Le Pen used after her conviction. That gives RN shared grievance for a moment, but it erases differences: if everyone cries bias, no one looks ready to govern.
Any attack on judges may thrill the base for a few days and then lose the voters RN needs to win a second round.
Le Pen’s legal ban means this is a Bardella-led campaign. That only helps RN if he looks steady, competent and serious on the economy, and if he avoids turning justice into a target.
The moment RN slides into grievance and conspiracy, it confirms the doubts of moderate, pro-EU voters and of partners who expect France to defend the rule of law.