When will the Hague commission begin compensating victims of Russia's aggression?
On Tuesday, 16 December, President Zelenskyy will travel to The Hague.
In his presence, an event will take place that has every chance of becoming historic. Several dozen states, not only from Europe, will sign an international agreement establishing a mechanism that will distribute reparations obtained from Russian assets among Ukrainian citizens and businesses affected by Russian aggression.
Markiyan Kliuchkovskyi, the Executive Director of the Register of Damage Caused by the Aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine under the Council of Europe, states that it has been preparing the groundwork for the compensation mechanism and processing claims for losses suffered by Ukrainians over the past year.
Read more about when the first payments may begin, who will be eligible, the position of the United States, and, of course, the obstacles along the way in Kliuchkovskyi’s interview with European Pravda: We have passed the point of no return on Russia paying compensation to Ukrainians.
On Tuesday in The Hague, the convention establishing the compensation commission for Ukraine will be formally approved and signed.
The convention will enter into force once it is ratified by 25 countries. Ratification is important because it makes the document legally binding.
Under the agreement to be signed on 16 December, a new international organisation will be created. We refer to it as the "compensation commission," although its official name is less straightforward – The International Claims Commission for Ukraine. This organisation will be established under the umbrella of the Council of Europe.
This commission will consider claims on their merits and determine the amounts – how much money Russia owes to each claimant. This is the component being created on 16 December.
The issue concerns reparations both to the state of Ukraine and to individuals.
The first level was the creation of the Register of Damage Caused by Russian Aggression, which collects compensation claims and subjects them to an initial screening.
The United States is a participant in the Register of Damage and took part in the negotiation process on the compensation commission. It will be represented at the diplomatic conference in The Hague on 16 December.
So at the very least, the US does not object. Whether the United States will sign the convention or not, we will find out soon.
The actual payment of money is the next stage, which we will also reach.
The Register of Damage from Russian aggression is operating, and it already contains 85,000 claims – concrete examples of violations of international law by Russia.
The process is moving forward, and we see a firm will among partners to ensure reparations for Ukraine and accountability for the aggressor.
Therefore, there is reason to believe that this process is already irreversible.
At the same time, we see very strong scepticism among the population.
People want to see a guaranteed payout at the end of this path. That does not yet exist. There is a lack of trust that the money will actually be paid.
Technically, we could adopt the first decisions on payments as early as the second half of 2027 and this is a very optimistic scenario.
This depends on how quickly 25 ratifications are secured. If that happens sometime in mid-2026, then in 2027 the commission could begin operating and approve the first amounts within six months.
Most likely, the first cases will be simple but numerous ones – in particular, compensation for "displaced persons," those who were forced to leave their place of residence. Then compensation for loss of life. After that, more complex cases involving property, and so on.
The source of payments can and should be the Russian Federation itself. In addition, the text of the European Commission’s proposal on a "reparations loan" to Ukraine contains a reference to the fact that part of these funds could be directed to the Compensation Fund under discussion.