How Trump has alarmed EU and what Europeans think about war in Ukraine
European Pravda has reported in detail on the growing tensions between the United States and other NATO members. Developments surrounding Greenland even forced European capitals to abandon their silence and publicly oppose Donald Trump.
But something more important than leaders’ statements is happening.
Public opinion is shifting and it is shifting now.
European Pravda has obtained the results of a large-scale survey conducted in 13 European countries and commissioned by the respected think tank ECFR (the European Council on Foreign Relations). Part of the research also covered Ukraine, where European Pravda is ECFR’s exclusive partner for disseminating the data. (ECFR has also published its own version of the analysis.)
The key findings of the study are outlined in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: US is no longer Europe’s ally: how Trump is changing minds in EU and who has lost faith in Ukraine.
The main trend of the past year is a loss of trust in America.
The United States remains a legal ally of European countries within NATO. But European societies no longer believe this to be the case.
In most of the surveyed countries, only 10–15% of respondents consider the US an ally. Meanwhile, in key EU driver states (Germany, France and Spain), 28% describe the US as a rival or adversary. The dominant view sees Washington as a "necessary partner." At the same time, support is growing for higher defence spending and reducing dependence on the US.
The decline in trust towards the US was expected. What is surprising is the speed and breadth of this shift. Even "pro-Trump" voters in the EU (Europe’s far-right) no longer understand the actions of the American president.
The survey also found that Europeans hold bleak expectations about the future – both for their own countries and for the world as a whole. The only European country that remains optimistic is… Ukraine.
58% of Ukrainians feel positive about their country’s future (only 18% are pessimistic), and 41% believe in the future of the world (19% are pessimistic). These figures are radically different from those anywhere else in Europe.
Perhaps this optimism is simply necessary for us, to "keep our sanity" while Europeans can afford the luxury of expecting the worst.
We share the same world with the rest of Europe. The difference is that its future truly depends above all on developments in Ukraine – developments that we sometimes sense more acutely than others do. And certainly more than many Bulgarians or Hungarians.
The survey also identified one EU country where an unusually high share of people expect a swift Russian victory in the war and thus a complete defeat of Ukraine. And no, it is not Hungary.
The most pessimistic figures regarding Ukraine were recorded in Bulgaria, where 30% of respondents believe Russia will win militarily.
Even in Hungary, whose leadership pursues openly anti-Ukrainian policies, only 14% expect a Kremlin victory.
Portugal, by contrast, stood out for its relatively high level of belief in Ukraine.
Belief accross Europe that the war will end in 2026 is not dominant. The most common view is that the war will still be ongoing a year from now.