Why fast accession of Ukraine is also a challenge for EU
During the Munich Ukrainian Lunch, European Commissioner Marta Kos became the first official from the European Commission to announce discussions about the possibility of accelerating Ukraine’s accession to the EU as early as 2027.
"We have to find a solution to bridge the gap between the merit-based principle and the methodology that we have been using for the past 40 years, as well as geopolitical challenges on the other side. We cannot wait anymore," she stated.
Read about the three key challenges this idea will face in the near future in the column by PhD in Economics Oleksandra Bulana: Three obstacles to swift accession: what could prevent Ukraine from becoming an EU member in 2027.
So, the first challenge, the author notes, is the need to give substantive content to accelerated membership. Clearly, Ukraine (and likely other candidate countries) will not be able to complete the full scope of reforms required for full accession by 2027.
One idea, provisionally called "reverse enlargement", suggests that Ukraine would be formally recognised as an EU member immediately, but the practical substance of that membership would develop gradually as reforms are implemented.
The idea of French President Emmanuel Macron for a "two-speed Europe" is also being discussed. It is evident that Ukraine would be the last to receive voting rights on certain (to clarify – certain, not all) common EU decisions.
"It is entirely possible that even if the idea of membership in 2027 is implemented, it would be largely formal in nature, and Ukraine’s real involvement in EU life would begin only after significant progress in reforms sufficient to close all negotiation chapters," writes Oleksandra Bulana.
Oleksandra Bulana emphasises that it is still unclear exactly how access to the EU single market and funds would be opened, as well as how Ukraine would participate at the technical level in EU institutions.
The second challenge, she says, is the internal political dynamics within the EU. Any changes to the enlargement methodology (and accelerated membership inevitably implies such changes) will require unanimous agreement from all EU member states.
"Reaching such consensus is a difficult task," warns the PhD in Economics. In her view, the situation for Ukraine could be simplified if accelerated enlargement also applied to other candidate countries.
"But even if it is possible to reach consensus among EU member states and agree on a new wave of enlargement including Ukraine, the European Union will still have to find solutions regarding internal reform… As of today, the European Commission has not presented concrete proposals for such internal reform," Bulana writes.
And third, the author adds, there are geopolitical issues. She explains that the idea of accelerated accession emerged as part of security guarantees for Ukraine within the framework of the ongoing peace negotiations.
In addition, Ukraine is undoubtedly an important security partner for the EU, and it is beneficial for both sides to maximize Ukraine’s involvement in security cooperation with the Union, the PhD in Economics notes.
But what if a peace agreement cannot be reached at this stage? And will the EU’s security needs be sufficient grounds for Ukraine’s accession to the single market and for full membership?
As former President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso once remarked, "the creativity of European lawyers is boundless when there is a real need."