How a new leader emerged in Bulgaria's elections and why this is troubling news for Ukraine
Snap parliamentary elections are set to be held in Bulgaria on 19 April. There are strong reasons to believe that their results may look very different from previous ones.
The reason is that this time a party associated with Rumen Radev, the country’s president who stepped down specifically to participate in the parliamentary elections, will take part in the race.
Although the party has not yet been formally established, polling agencies predict it could win first place by a significant margin.
Read more about how the former president could reshape the balance of power in parliament and what consequences this may have in the article by Volodymyr-Nazarii Havrysh of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism": Bulgaria on the brink of a turnaround: why a pro-Russian comeback has become possible.
In mid-February, two Bulgarian polling agencies, Market Links and "Myara," conducted surveys of voter preferences.
The results were truly sensational: the hypothetical party of former president Radev received 25.6% and 33.3% support respectively.
Both polls show striking figures: Radev’s political force is poised to claim a relative majority amid declining support for personalist populist parties, the pro-Russian establishment, and pro-European coalitions alike.
Even without securing a single-party majority, the party has every chance of becoming the core of a new coalition government.
There are several reasons for such broad voter appeal, but three stand out: a new face on the parliamentary stage. The former president’s high approval and trust ratings before stepping down, and the fact that the hypothetical party still lacks a defined programme, leaving room for hope and expectations among some voters.
Given his previously demonstrated political preferences, Radev could build his platform around one of two likely options.
The first option is moderate Euro-Atlanticism. Under this scenario, the former president would not reject the benefits of NATO and the EU, but would also refrain from deepening integration within these structures.
The second option is moderate Russophilia. In this case, Radev would openly court Russia and China, seek to annul Bulgaria’s accession to the eurozone, and reduce the country’s dependence on Western partners, gradually replacing them with Beijing.
Under such a scenario, the new party would block any initiatives aimed at assisting Ukraine, both at the EU level and domestically, justifying this as an attempt "to stop the suffering of ordinary people and achieve peace".
Radev’s party taking first place in the upcoming parliamentary elections would in itself be bad news for Ukraine.
However, an even worse scenario would be the formation of a government led by this party.
Given that for pro-European forces an alliance with Radev’s party would amount to political suicide, potential coalition partners for the former president’s political force could include the Bulgarian Socialists (provided they manage to clear the electoral threshold).
An even more troubling option would be a coalition with other pro-Russian political forces.
At the same time, pro-European forces are unlikely to remain passive.
The best tactic against the former president may be to draw him into various political processes in order to use up his accumulated political capital and reduce the aura surrounding his candidacy among part of the electorate.
Under any scenario, Bulgaria is unlikely to take an active foreign policy role in the Russian-Ukrainian war, including signing a bilateral security agreement. Due to a lack of political will, this agreement has remained unsigned since December 2024.
Even the limited assistance that Bulgaria currently provides to Ukraine, including the sale of ammunition, remains under threat.