Why Fico sharply escalated his criticism of Ukraine and what may be behind it
The suspension of operations on the Druzhba oil pipeline has led to further deterioration in relations not only with Viktor Orbán but also with the Slovak government led by Robert Fico.
At present, the rhetoric and actions of the two leaders of countries neighbouring Ukraine have become almost identical. However, there is one important nuance: unlike Orbán, Fico does not currently need to mobilise his electorate, as parliamentary elections in Slovakia are scheduled only for the autumn of next year.
Read more to understand what lies behind Robert Fico’s radicalisation and how Ukrainian-Slovak relations may change in the near future in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Following Orbán’s path: what lies behind Robert Fico’s anti-Ukrainian actions.
The current Slovak prime minister can hardly be described as a friend of Ukraine. It is enough to recall that last year he was the only EU leader to attend the 9 May parade in Moscow.
Despite this, until recently Kyiv had managed to maintain more or less working relations with Bratislava. In particular, Fico did not oppose Ukraine’s accession to the EU (unlike Orbán).
His government also did not halt the fulfilment of military contracts for Ukraine, nor did it stop providing humanitarian assistance. Moreover, the transfer of demining equipment, which is expected to assist the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was resumed.
However, little of that constructive approach now remains in bilateral relations.
Whereas previously the Slovak leader tried to outwardly demonstrate readiness to cooperate with Ukraine, his current position almost entirely aligns with Orbán’s course.
The only exception is the European Council’s decision on a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, which Orbán is blocking single-handedly, without the help of his Slovak ally.
One common explanation for Bratislava’s shift in position is that the Slovak prime minister’s team lost perhaps the last politician who understood the importance of Ukrainian-Slovak cooperation and whose voice Fico genuinely listened to.
This refers to Miroslav Lajčák, Slovakia’s former foreign minister and, in recent years, Fico’s national security adviser. On 31 January, Miroslav Lajčák resigned following the publication of the Epstein files.
However, not everyone accepts this explanation.
"Lajčák did not have enough influence over Fico to force him to change course. Fico made all his decisions himself, so there is no point in looking for the reasons behind the current scandals in Lajčák’s resignation," one Slovak politician explained unofficially.
Therefore, Bratislava’s current shift in course may have much deeper roots.
On 12 April, parliamentary elections will take place in Hungary, in which Viktor Orbán could lose power. This, in turn, could further weaken the position of Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico.
Hungarian state propaganda has been a significant factor influencing ethnic Hungarians in Slovakia, helping secure Fico’s victory in the previous parliamentary elections.
"It appears that Fico and Orbán are now coordinating their actions and working together to secure a victory for Fidesz [Orbán’s party] in the 12 April elections," suggests Alexander Duleba, an analyst at the Slovak Foreign Policy Association (SFPA).
In addition, it cannot be ruled out that the renewed focus on Ukraine is part of preparations for the next parliamentary elections.
"There is a suspicion that the current conflict over the suspension of Druzhba is primarily needed by Fico to explain the anti-Ukrainian nature of his future election campaign. It very much looks as though Fico has begun consolidating Slovak society around opposition to Ukraine’s accelerated accession to the EU. This is likely the issue he will bet on in the next elections," representatives of the Slovak opposition suggest.