What influences Fico's policy towards Ukraine and under what conditions he might follow Orbán's path
Even if Viktor Orbán were to lose Hungary’s parliamentary elections in April, the blocking of a €90-billion loan for Ukraine could still remain. At least this assumption was voiced by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, effectively threatening that Slovakia could replace Hungary in vetoing aid to Kyiv.
Fico made this statement at the end of last week. However, his actions in recent days suggest rather the opposite: the head of the Slovak government is not ready to damage relations with Brussels. Thus, where Orbán resorts to blackmail, Fico is trying to negotiate.
Read more about what Ukraine and the EU should expect from the Slovak prime minister in the column by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Fico on two chairs: why the Slovak prime minister is not ready to act like Orbán.
The author notes that despite his rhetoric, the Slovak leader travelled for talks with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and reportedly secured agreement on restoring transit through the Druzhba pipeline. In addition, Slovakia is not participating in the governmental delegation visit aimed at inspecting the state of the pipeline that had not been coordinated with official Kyiv.
So is Fico ready to act like Orbán and confront the entire EU by trying to blackmail it with a halt to aid for Ukraine?
"It is worth recalling that despite his complete lack of sympathy for Ukraine, and above all his reliance on the anti-Western and pro-Russian part of the electorate, Robert Fico has always tried to act in a way that does not deprive him of room for retreat," Panchenko writes.
According to him, now that the conflict with Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, requires personal involvement from the head of government, Fico is trying to "spread out" responsibility as much as possible.
In particular, this week the President of Slovakia attended a government meeting for the first time since 2011. In doing so, Peter Pellegrini effectively supported the prime minister’s anti-Ukrainian statements made during the meeting.
This caution has its reasons, Panchenko emphasises.
First, unlike Orbán, Fico cannot boast of good relations with US president Donald Trump.
Second, unlike the Hungarian prime minister, the Slovak head of government is not ready to stand alone against the whole of Europe. Last year, by traveling to Moscow on 9 May for the military parade (the only EU leader to do so), Fico seriously damaged relations with leaders of the EU’s major countries. Later, he invested considerable effort in restoring them.
Finally, Slovakia’s economic situation is such that the government may soon have to seek assistance from the European Commission.
Thus, on the one hand, with tough rhetoric Robert Fico is trying to consolidate his core electorate and support Orbán’s demands; on the other hand, he is trying not to completely damage relations with either Kyiv or Brussels.
"Under these circumstances, Robert Fico’s behaviour looks like an attempt to sit on two chairs at once," the author concludes.
According to the European Pravda editor, this situation still leaves room for Kyiv to reach an understanding with Bratislava.