How Poland has started preparing for elections and what surprises may await Ukraine
Although the next parliamentary elections in Poland are set to be held in autumn 2027, the election campaign has already begun.
From now on, all key decisions will be made with regard to their impact on pre-election calculations.
Most likely, the main dispute will revolve around relations with the EU and the United States, pushing debates about Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees into the background.
However, a breakthrough in relations should not be expected either. The campaign is unfolding amid a further deterioration in Poles’ attitudes towards Ukrainians.
Read more about how Poland is entering the pre-election season in the article by Polish journalist Marcin Terlik: Poland between the EU and Trump: how neighbours began preparing for the 2027 elections and what Ukraine should expect.
At the beginning of March, the conservative party Law and Justice (PiS), which was removed from power in 2023 after eight years in government, launched its election marathon.
Its first step was made in Kraków, where it announced Przemysław Czarnek as its candidate for prime minister. He is known, among other things, for his sharp criticism of the LGBT community and his demonstrative devotion to Catholic values. At the same time, he is a sharp-tongued and charismatic lawyer who feels confident both in the media and at campaign rallies.
"We are boarding this well-oiled, prepared high-speed train. I am to be the driver who will lead it to Poland’s victory," Czarnek commented metaphorically on his nomination.
However, another point is no less important: nominating a candidate for prime minister a year and a half before parliamentary elections indicates that Law and Justice intends to set the tone for the entire campaign and, above all, to start early competition for voters on the right flank.
The party has long been losing support, with radical right forces drawing away its electorate.
While the right-wing opposition is energetically launching its campaign, there appears to be silence for now within ruling circles.
The strategy of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition is to portray the entire right as dangerous radicals who can only be restrained by his moderate party.
"So, there are three Confederations against us. There is nothing to fear, but they should not be underestimated. One thing is certain: in 2027, Poland faces an all-or-nothing game," Tusk says.
Confederation is one of the far-right parties which, despite support from around a dozen percent of voters, provokes dislike among a significant part of Polish society.
This strategy is yielding results, as reflected in Tusk’s party maintaining support of over 31% for several months.
However, Donald Tusk’s main concern may be the low level of electoral support for his smaller coalition partners. There is a considerable risk of a scenario in which Tusk’s party wins the 2027 elections but cannot form a parliamentary majority and remain in power.
Therefore, in recent days the idea has resurfaced that the parties of the governing coalition should run on a single list.
Overall, the topic of Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees, very prominent during the 2025 presidential campaign, is gradually moving into the background for the new elections.
The key word in the upcoming election campaign may become "sovereignty". The sharpest debates revolve around it.
Political disputes are increasingly concentrating on Poland’s attitude towards its Western partners: the European Union and the increasingly unpredictable United States.
It is precisely the turbulent international situation that may determine the nature of the election campaign, which in autumn 2027 will decide Poland’s future.