NATO New Strategic Concept: Seven Threats and Place for Ukraine

Thursday, 30 June 2022

At the Madrid summit, leaders of NATO countries approved a new strategic concept on June 29.

The current version of the Strategic Concept, approved in 2010, is long and hopelessly outdated. This document does not consider the radical change in the security situation in Europe, "does not notice" Russia's attacks on Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, and states that Russia should be a "strategic partner" of NATO.

NATO's new strategy has turned out to be quite coherent. If the "Russian" block is really good, you can't say the same about the wording that describes the future of Ukraine…

Probably the most intriguing about the new strategy was the wording for Russia.

NATO claims that Russia is "the Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to Allies' security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area." The Alliance has accused Russia of systematically seeking to establish spheres of influence and direct control through coercion, subversion, aggression, annexation, and nuclear blackmail.

As if arguing with the Alliance's previous strategy, the new document emphasizes: "We cannot consider the Russian Federation as to our partner." However, it acknowledges it will not be possible to abandon contacts with Russia completely. The Alliance remains on the line of emergency communication with Russia, including communication in crises.

Moreover, until the last moment, some parties in the Alliance lobbied for much weaker wording. Sources of "European Pravda" confirm this. The situation was really very far from desirable.

The initial drafts of the document terrified friends of Ukraine and the official Kyiv that had to intervene.

The "Russian" block of the document is good, but you can't say the same about the future of Ukraine. The Strategic Concept mentions it in two paragraphs out of half a hundred.

One of them describes the current war and states that Ukraine must emerge victorious.

The second one is about the policy of open doors. Everything is not so clear there.

Thus, the Alliance referred to the decision of the 2008 summit that Ukraine would one day become a member of NATO. But numerous requests from both the Ukrainian expert community and the Ukrainian authorities to open a window for faster accession, for example, bypassing the MAP, have not been reflected in the document.

Although the future Ukrainian issue and the ongoing war with Russia are more significant than all other topics combined, the Alliance's strategic concept was to cover a much wider range of topics - and it did.

The Alliance's new strategy identifies seven threats or challenges as a priority.

First place - Russia. We discussed it detailed above. The Alliance emphasizes that Russia is also an example of how serious a threat to the world is authoritarian regimes in principle.

Threat №2 - terrorism ", in all its forms and manifestations." Terrorists have received increasingly high-tech and lethal weapons. This is a particular challenge to the Alliance and world security.

Threat №3 - conflict, fragility, and instability in Africa and the Middle East. It is exacerbated by Russia, which has attacked Ukraine and created a food crisis in the world.

Threat №4 - China. Nothing new here, especially since the Alliance has long been talking about the rapprochement of Beijing and Moscow. However, for NATO, such official, documented recognition is, in fact, a milestone. It is the first time the Alliance has declared its "Chinese" policy in the Strategic Concept.

Challenge №5 - abuse in cyberspace and new technologies. It is not independent. It is a tool in the hands of anti-Western players, from Russia to terrorists.

Challenge №6 - the erosion of the arms control. NATO actors do not widely talk about it, but they hint at the danger of seeing nuclear weapons from those actors who should not have them. They also note that Russia could become a source of illegal proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Finally, the challenge №7 is climate change. It has become so threatening that even the Alliance takes care of it.

We are entering an era of a multipolar world, where non-state actors are often the source of threats. NATO must find its place and its role in the new realities. They also need to understand that together with Ukraine, the resilience of the Alliance will only increase.

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