Is Kyiv Ready for Strategic Relations with Warsaw – Perspective from Poland

Monday, 18 September 2023

Polish-Ukrainian relations have entered a crisis. The reason is the lack of understanding between the parties on sensitive issues and each other's interests.

It is also related to the ongoing election campaign in Poland to some extent.

However, in reality, the reason is much deeper – the absence of a common strategic vision, according to a column by Polish historian and publicist Marek Budzisz Strategic Alliance with Poland: Needed for Ukraine?

The author warns that without a shared strategic vision, only situational vision begins to dominate in relations, leading the countries from one crisis to another.

He agrees with Maria Zolkina's view that the Ukrainian political elite has not defined its strategic partners, which, in his opinion, is causing increasing restraint from the Polish side.

"After all, what is the point of risking losses in domestic politics to pursue a complex and sometimes oppositional policy if those who govern Ukraine follow the path of former President Petro Poroshenko, who counted on a Franco-German agreement?" Budzisz rhetorically questions from the Polish perspective.

According to him, the consequences of such a political line have been catastrophic for Ukraine. Repeating this path would be ever more risky. But every country has the right to its own political line, even if it is incorrect, the publicist adds.

Therefore, as he believes, it is worth describing Ukraine's strategic position in a few theses, to some extent, Poland's as well.

First, the threat from Russia is a permanent factor that will not disappear for decades, notes the Polish historian.

"Second, in Eastern Europe, there are no other states besides Ukraine and Poland with a common demographic, military, and economic potential that would enable them to contain Russia in the future and create conditions for the recovery of Ukraine and the accelerated development of both our countries," Marek Budzisz believes.

The author adds that this potential, as a third conclusion, must be supplemented by the support of other countries, from the United States and the United Kingdom to our neighbours in Romania, the Baltic countries, and Scandinavia.

This means that Poland and Ukraine must jointly create a target security model, allocating significant military forces, according to Budzisz.

"Otherwise, we will live in an imperfect system vulnerable to Russian aggression," warns the Polish historian.

He points out the fundamental differences between Poland's and Ukraine's positions. First and foremost, Poland operates within the framework of collective defence, while Ukraine does not have that yet.

"I will formulate another, perhaps painful thesis for Ukraine: today there are no chances for its rapid NATO accession, or for the implementation of a policy to turn Ukraine into 'Israel of the East,' or, unfortunately, for joining the European Union," notes the author.

According to him, the United States does not supply Ukraine with sufficient military equipment and ammunition with the aim of avoiding the escalation of war and preserving NATO's cohesion.

"It is precisely for this reason that Ukraine did not receive security guarantees in an invitation to join the North Atlantic Treaty, as NATO's unity would be under threat in the conditions of German opposition.

But, such a security model that includes Ukraine and restrains Russia is at stake," writes Marek Budzisz.

So, he puts forward another thesis: without Polish support, Ukraine will face problems in all these areas.

Integration of Kyiv into the Western security system without close cooperation with the countries of the region is absolutely unrealistic, according to the Polish publicist.

Last year, he formulated the idea of a Polish-Ukrainian federation.

Perhaps, Budzisz suggests, it would be worth creating a governing committee at the presidential level, with the necessary powers, that could predict crises, seek common solutions, and support each other. After all, we need to move in the same direction.

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