How new trends in global trade could hit Ukraine
Everyone expected that Donald Trump's return to the White House would bring changes to international trade, but no one anticipated it would involve blanket import tariffs against nearly everyone.
It’s clear that steep tariffs have redirected imports to other unprotected markets, which in turn began closing off in response.
So what should Ukraine prepare for? Read more the column by Angela Makhinova, partner at Sayenko Kharenko law firm: Trade complications: why the EU’s new initiatives could be dangerous for Ukraine.
The author reminds us that during 2022–2023, Ukraine enjoyed a sort of immunity from trade defence measures and other import restrictions. Many countries (such as the US, EU, Canada and the UK) liberalised trade with Ukraine to support its economy.
"However, starting in 2024, these ‘privileges’ for Ukrainian imports began to be gradually curtailed," Makhinova notes.
According to her, negotiations are currently underway under Article 29 of the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement to define trade terms for the period before Ukraine’s EU accession. And these negotiations, she adds, may prove quite difficult, as several EU countries have refused proposals to increase import quotas for Ukrainian goods.
"Canada also came as a bit of a surprise," she notes, referring to the June 2025 decision to extend trade liberalisation with Ukraine until June 2026, but with one major caveat: Order SOR/2025-135 excluded the provision suspending anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Ukrainian goods.
In the lawyer’s opinion, recent developments signal that the EU is preparing to aggressively defend its domestic market from imports.
This is a worrying sign for Kyiv, Makhinova warns.
In particular, the EU has initiated an import monitoring procedure.
Primarily, this is because trade restrictions in the US are expected to reroute Chinese goods toward the EU market.
According to Makhinova, this new import surveillance mechanism will likely lead to a rise in anti-dumping, safeguard, and anti-subsidy measures.
"Ukrainian products, whose imports have grown significantly in the EU during the war, and are expected to continue growing, may become targets of these safeguard, anti-dumping, or countervailing investigations in the EU," the author warns.
Additionally, the EU has launched consultations with various stakeholders and experts to develop, by the end of June next year, a robust mechanism to protect the internal market from imports of metallurgical products.
According to her, Ukrainian metallurgy may also come under fire.
"In general, considering the new trends in global trade and their impact on Ukraine, it’s clear: the era of unconditional support for Ukraine, including the suspension of trade defence measures, is over.
Ukrainian producers must now adapt to these new realities and adjust their sales plans and development strategies accordingly, to avoid negative consequences such as the closure of export markets," Makhinova concludes.