Why Russia's "drone provocation" failed and how it affected Poland-Ukraine relations
The Russian drone attack on Poland on the night of 9-10 September, as well as subsequent Russian provocations in the airspace of Estonia, Romania, Denmark and Norway, have drawn constant attention from Western media and policymakers.
What is Putin’s game? Are Western countries responding adequately? And what does all this mean for the further course of the war in Ukraine?
Read more in the article by Edwin Bendyk, Chair of the Stefan Batory Foundation (Poland): Drones that "woke up" Poland: did Russia succeed in driving a wedge between Ukraine and its allies.
Poland’s response included not only the military component, which experts consider successful, but also a political dimension, demonstrating NATO countries’ unity.
It is important to note that Russia’s deterrence potential relies primarily on Poland’s allies’ guarantees and on allied unity within NATO and the EU.
The first shot was fired by a Dutch aircraft, with planes from other countries participating in the operation. Following the attack, France and the United Kingdom, both nuclear powers, sent their aircraft to Poland.
Their presence signals that the cost of any attack for Russia will rise due to the risk of a universalised response. These specific decisions by France, the United Kingdom and Czechia were reinforced by unequivocal statements of political support.
Another opportunity to demonstrate allied unity came with the activation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This triggers consultations among allies and increases readiness for cooperation, and can be seen as a precursor to Article 5, which obliges member states to provide direct assistance in the event of an armed attack.
It is also worth noting that on 9-10 September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen mentioned the Russian provocation in her State of the Union speech, warning Moscow that the EU will defend every square centimeter of European territory.
Through the provocation against Poland, Russia sought to divide Polish society.
Social media posts claimed that the incident was actually a Ukrainian provocation, arguing that Ukraine had an interest in drawing Poland and NATO directly into the war.
Other messages spread the narrative that NATO had failed and was weak, and that the Polish government was ineffective.
However, the authorities and society demonstrated unity.
A symbolic gesture of unity between the government and the president was a photograph showing Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski shaking hands with President Karol Nawrocki in Washington during a visit for the UN General Assembly.
Public opinion research conducted by IBRiS shows that 82% of respondents have no doubt that the drone attack was not a mistake but a deliberate Russian provocation.
Moreover, the Russian drone provocation had a positive effect on the political dynamics between Poland and Ukraine. On 18 September, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz arrived in Kyiv to sign a cooperation agreement.
This includes areas such as counter-drone defense training, the development of joint technologies, military cooperation, and other forms of collaboration.
These are very encouraging signals, as they indicate a significant shift in perspective regarding Ukraine.
However, Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO will also depend on Ukrainian experts, who must provide their European colleagues with arguments in favour of de-escalation rather than escalation, as the best response to the Russian threat, even if the threat were real.