How Ireland's new president could weaken the country and should Kyiv be worried

Catherine Connolly claimed victory in Ireland’s presidential election on 24 October. A staunch left-wing politician, she is a firm supporter of Ireland’s neutrality, a critic of NATO and an opponent of sending weapons to Ukraine.

Her win is a major blow to the current center-right coalition.

Read more about Ireland’s new president and what her victory means for Ukraine in the article by Oleksandr Kraiev of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council: Ireland chooses pacifism: how a left-wing president in dublin could threaten Ukraine.

Critics describe Catherine Connolly as a radical who could complicate Dublin’s relations with Washington and its European allies. Analysts also expect tension between the newly elected president and the government, especially on foreign policy.

The reason is that the new president holds a rather unconventional view of Ireland’s international partners. In her opinion, the growing militarisation of the West is a key source of today’s crises – not just political or security-related ones, but also the climate crisis.

Speaking at Dublin Castle after the election results were announced, Connolly declared: "I will be a voice for peace, a voice that builds on our policy of neutrality, a voice that articulates the existential threat posed by climate change."

Against this backdrop, her statements about Ukraine appear even more unusual.

On the one hand, Connolly has consistently expressed support for Ukraine, calling for aid to refugees, humanitarian assistance, macro-financial help and "every possible form of human support." However, such remarks have always come paired with references to Yemen, Palestine and other global hotspots  as well as with condemnations of arms transfers and the involvement of neutral states, including Ireland, in wars.

Connolly takes an absolutist view of neutrality.

Her interpretation of Ireland’s doctrine rejects not only joining NATO (a debate that has intensified since 2022) but also any foreign policy steps that might require Ireland to commit funds or resources to security initiatives.

It would therefore not be surprising if, in the coming months, Chinese "investors" begin showing increased interest in Irish politics and business.

Moreover, Connolly is expected to continue the tradition of an active, media-savvy presidency, following in the footsteps of her predecessors.

We can anticipate fiery speeches on international stages, during foreign visits and at global climate forums.

This could create serious friction with the ruling Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition.

In Ireland, debates have recently resurfaced about NATO membership and whether the country’s neutrality remains fair to its neighbours and partners. Yet even a discussion of revising this stance appears utterly unacceptable to the new head of state.

Still, Connolly’s ambitions face a built-in obstacle: the Irish presidency is a largely ceremonial office with very limited powers.

And her opponents have another argument – the record-low voter turnout, which can easily be read as a weak mandate for the new president.