What will change in Ukraine-Czech relations and will Babiš’s government stop supporting Ukraine?
Czechia is to have a new government next month. The current coalition, consisting of the Spolu bloc and the STAN party, will go into opposition, while the new government will be formed by the ANO party – either independently or in coalition.
The worst-case scenario for Ukraine has most likely been avoided.
This is because, quite unexpectedly, the Stačilo! (Enough!) bloc – an alliance of left-wing parties led by the Communists – failed to enter parliament.
The sensational defeat of the Communists completely reshaped the coalition landscape and in Ukraine’s favour.
Read more about how Czech rhetoric may change after the shift of power in an article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: Unpleasant, but not a catastrophe: what the change of power in Czechia means for Ukraine.
Russian provocations, first against Poland and then against other countries, sharply changed the entire pre-election picture. In the last major debate a week ago, all parties – except the far-right and far-left – acknowledged the real security threat posed to Czechia by Russia’s actions.
Additionally, Czech President Petr Pavel declared that he would not submit a government to parliament that included extremists. Although he did not name specific parties, everyone understood whom he meant.
Finally, the Russian threat motivated voters to turn out at the polls.
Such high turnout dealt a devastating blow to the "extremists" – the far-right SPD party of Tomio Okamura came in only fifth with 7.8%, while Stačilo! won just 4.3%, below the 5% threshold.
This result gave President Pavel grounds to assert that the initiative to reverse the country’s foreign policy course did not receive Czech support.
As the final results showed, the votes lost by the "extremists" in the last days of the campaign largely went to former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s ANO party.
Babiš’s party won 34.5% of the vote and will have 80 seats in the new parliament (while 101 are needed for a majority).
The most likely scenario is a minority government formed by ANO (possibly with the Motorists for Themselves party), but relying on support from Tomio Okamura’s far-right SPD.
This means SPD will not receive cabinet posts (which is certainly good), but as compensation may obtain important parliamentary positions. For example, discussions are already underway about supporting Okamura’s candidacy for speaker.
Under this scenario, Prague’s rhetoric can be expected to become significantly less friendly, though this will not necessarily translate into actual policy changes.
The advantage of a minority government is that Babiš can, when needed, turn to SPD for votes (particularly on social policy revisions), but for foreign policy decisions he will need support from parties of the current coalition.
A telling point: after the election results were announced, Babiš became much more cautious in his comments regarding Ukraine.
On the one hand, he takes a critical stance towards Kyiv, saying that Ukraine is not ready for EU membership (which is hard to argue against), but he has not spoken of blocking accession negotiations.
The same applies to military aid. Babiš has already stated that he will not stop commercial arms supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And regarding the "ammunition initiative," he now speaks not of halting the program, but of the need for its audit.
Most importantly, the winner of the Czech elections clearly does not intend to "fight" the European Commission alongside Viktor Orbán.