Why the West is not intensifying criticism of Erdoğan amid attacks on democratic institutions
The rapid rise of China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the US-Israeli war with Iran have made geopolitical rivalry the main force shaping the global economy. President Donald Trump’s reversal of long-established US policies has compounded that uncertainty, forcing governments and businesses alike to navigate an increasingly complex strategic landscape.
In the years leading up to this month’s NATO summit, the EU and other Western allies had remained wary of Türkiye because of Erdoğan’s attacks on democratic institutions, his close relationship with Putin and his dubious economic policies.
Read more about the strategic importance of Türkiye for the West in an increasingly unstable world in the column by Anne O. Krueger of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies: Geopolitics vs. Democracy: How and Why the West Is Changing Its Approach to Türkiye.
"Türkiye has long been an underappreciated NATO ally and a vital economic bridge between Europe and the Middle East," the author of the column emphasises.
She points out that straddling Europe and Asia, it occupies one of the world’s most consequential geopolitical crossroads.
With a population of nearly 88 million and NATO’s second-largest military, it is a major regional power. Economically, it has emerged as one of the region’s leading manufacturing and logistics hubs.
"After remaining neutral for nearly all of World War II, Türkiye firmly aligned itself with the West by joining NATO," Anne O. Krueger recalls.
It later became an associate member of the European Economic Community – the precursor to today’s EU – and eventually applied for full membership.
The accession process gained momentum after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party won the 2002 election, but negotiations dragged on for years and effectively stalled after 2017.
"Much of the delay can be attributed to the EU’s reluctance to move forward, as concerns about democratic backsliding under Erdoğan’s rule. His increasingly authoritarian rule has also strained relations with the US, although Trump appears far less troubled by it than his predecessors were," explains the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies senior research fellow.
She recalls that as relations with the US and the EU grew increasingly strained, Erdoğan continued to cultivate ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, while also supplying drones to Ukraine.
"But as Türkiye’s strategic importance grew, many NATO allies began placing greater emphasis on security and defence cooperation," the columnist notes.
The Ankara summit brought that shift into sharper focus, with Trump heaping praise on Erdoğan, while European allies largely refrained from publicly criticising the Turkish leader’s domestic record.
These shifts underscore the recognition of Türkiye’s strategic importance and pivotal economic role in an increasingly unstable region. They also encapsulate the dilemma confronting Western democracies: Some of the countries that are most critical to transatlantic security are among those drifting the furthest from democratic norms.
"Press them too hard, and they may move into the orbit of rivals such as China and Russia. Press them too little, and the erosion of democratic institutions can accelerate, undermining both the values the West seeks to defend and its credibility in defending them," the author explains.
Reconciling these competing imperatives is extraordinarily difficult, as EU and NATO leaders are discovering. Yet, doing so will be crucial to not only preserving the West’s credibility, but also realising Türkiye’s full potential as both a strategic ally and an economic partner.