How Kremlin is trying to influence the French elections and how the government wants to prevent it
Russian intelligence activity has intensified ahead of France’s presidential election.
The activity of the Russian network shows just how strongly the Kremlin wants to secure Marine Le Pen’s victory. At the same time, it demonstrates how uncertain Moscow is – despite all the opinion polls – about her ability to win the second round.
Read more about information attacks targeting French politicians and how Paris plans to protect the election from foreign interference in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a European Pravda co-founder: From the Kremlin with love: how Russians are attacking Le Pen’s rivals to help her win the election.
France’s General Secretariat for Defence and National Security (SGDSN) informed European Parliament member Raphaël Glucksmann that he had become a target of the "Storm-1516" group, which is directly controlled by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU. Glucksmann himself announced this on 4 August.
According to him, the disinformation campaign carried out by the Russians included an article published on a website designed to imitate the popular French news outlet Blast. The article claimed that Glucksmann’s partner, Léa Salamé, a well-known French journalist, had attempted to bribe other journalists into publishing positive news about the presidential candidate. A deepfake video was also circulated on social media, supposedly serving as evidence of these allegations.
The accusations against Russian intelligence services were also confirmed by an AFP source within the French intelligence services. The source confirmed that the campaign was carried out by the pro-Russian "Storm-1516" network.
The network has targeted another potential candidate in France’s presidential election, former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe. In July, false information was circulated on social media about his health, claiming that his condition would allegedly prevent him from carrying out the duties of president.
As in the case of Philippe, the operation against Glucksmann generated "relatively little publicity" on social media. At the same time, the AFP source noted the high quality of the AI-generated video, making it "quite difficult" to identify as a fake.
"The goal is to spread and make a complete lie go viral in order to smear people whom the Russian regime considers hostile," Raphaël Glucksmann said.
He considers this tactic to be a "typical method used by Russian intelligence services across Europe."
The choice of targets for Russia’s information attacks is particularly revealing.
Although all current opinion polls show Marine Le Pen in a clear lead, including indicating that she would be able to defeat any opponent in a second round, Édouard Philippe is considered her most dangerous potential rival.
He is the candidate from the pro-presidential camp who currently has the smallest gap with Le Pen in a second-round matchup – often within the margin of error.
The choice of Raphaël Glucksmann as a target is equally telling.
Although support for the leader of the centre-left party Place Publique (Public Square) fluctuates around 9–11%, if he were to reach the second round, he could prove to be a formidable opponent by attracting votes from both left-wing and centrist voters.
In this context, the best-case scenario for Le Pen would be one in which she faced Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left party La France Insoumise (France Unbowed), in the second round.
And it appears that the Kremlin will try to ensure precisely this comfortable scenario for Le Pen in the second round.
According to French intelligence services, since August 2023 the Russians have carried out 205 information operations in the country.
To prevent such interference, the French government introduced a bill in parliament in July aimed at protecting elections from foreign interference. The legislation provides for penalties for electoral disinformation. Parliamentary consideration of the bill will begin on 20 October, and there is a strong chance that it will be passed by the end of the year.