How Sweden's government could change after the elections and what Ukraine can expect
On 13 September, Swedish citizens will go to the polls to elect all 349 members of the national parliament, the Riksdag, as well as local authorities, following four years of the current parliament’s and government’s term in office.
In early summer, it seemed that the current governing parties of the "right-wing bloc" were inevitably heading for defeat against the opposition. However, the latest polling data suggest that this is not yet a foregone conclusion.
Sweden is an utterly important ally and donor of military support to Kyiv, even if it is not as much of an economic and political heavyweight as France or Germany.
Read more about what political changes can be expected in Sweden and whether there are any threats to maintaining Stockholm’s support after the elections in the article by Mariia Yemets, a European Pravda journalist: Elections among Ukraine’s friends: is a change of government possible in Sweden and how would it affect support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
For the past four years, Sweden has been governed by a right-wing minority government formed by the parties of the Tidö coalition, named after the castle where their agreement was signed, with the support of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats. The Sweden Democrats do not hold ministerial posts but support government proposals in parliament.
The current prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, represents the Moderates. His party holds the largest number of positions in the government – 17 in total, including the ministers of foreign affairs and defence – while the Liberals hold 11 and the Christian Democrats hold 6.
These political forces supported one another during the 2022 election campaign and hope to repeat that success in September 2026. Until recently, however, their chances appeared rather slim.
The Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, have long been the clear leaders in the polls.
She served as the country’s prime minister before Kristersson. As of August, according to a poll conducted for Svenska Dagbladet, 30.4% of voters were prepared to vote for the Social Democrats.
However, the contest remains open because the gap between the right-wing bloc and the likely centre-left bloc has been narrowing rapidly.
Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that relations between potential coalition partners are "not straightforward" – on both the right and the left.
Nevertheless, Ulf Kristersson has expressed confidence that the Tidö coalition can win the election even if its partner, the Liberals, fails to clear the 4% electoral threshold. At the same time, Liberal Party leader Fredrik Brange publicly disagrees with him, stressing that if the Liberals do not enter the Riksdag, a majority for the right-wing bloc will be impossible.
Overall, therefore, it appears that the structure of the next government and the political "colours" of the new coalition will become clear only after post-election negotiations.
Among Sweden’s political parties, there is almost unanimous agreement on the need to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary".
After all, all parties are influenced by public opinion. Most Swedes sincerely support Ukraine and believe that the outcome of the war affects their own country’s security. This perception has forced even those political forces whose positions were less clear-cut before the full-scale war to change their views.
Sanctions against Russia and efforts to combat sanctions evasion, ensuring accountability for violations of international law and war crimes and continuing military and other assistance from Sweden and at the EU level – these are points shared by the majority of parties, both within the governing coalition and in the opposition.
Therefore, whatever the composition of the next parliament and government turns out to be, there is little reason to doubt that Sweden’s support for Ukraine will continue.