Why does Trump want a "diesel deal" with Russia and what should Ukraine do?
The US "diesel deal" with Russia has sparked outrage not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also in the United States, including among prominent members of the Republican Party.
Even if the Russian diesel supplies promised by Russian ruler Vladimir Putin do get underway, they are unlikely to bring about a significant reduction in fuel prices in the US. Consequently, they are unlikely to help Trump’s fellow Republicans in the congressional elections, which are set to be held on 3 November.
Why, then, is President Donald Trump so actively promoting such questionable initiatives, and what is really going on? Read more in the article by Yurii Panchenko, a co-founde of European Pravda, who spoke with Volodymyr Dubovyk of the Center for International Studies and the Odesa Mechnikov National University: Diesel in exchange for Ukraine? Why Trump wants a deal with Putin that won’t work?
First of all, we should acknowledge that Trump’s current deal with Russia is not really about diesel. Russia does not have the reserves or production capacity needed to genuinely influence fuel prices in the United States.
The volumes of diesel Russia has promised to sell to the US will not have a decisive impact on a market as large as the American one. And that is assuming Russia can even deliver the quantities specified in the announced agreement – something we do not know for certain.
Instead, this is a purely political deal, tied to the US midterm congressional elections on 3 November. Foreign policy is a secondary consideration in these elections. The decisive issues will be the economy and the government’s ability to bring rising prices under control.
Fuel prices are a key issue in this election campaign.
Trump needs this deal to show voters that he is not sitting idly by.
And when his opponents criticise him over the deal, that may actually work to his advantage. It gives the US president an opportunity to appeal to voters and say, in effect: "Look who really doesn’t want fuel prices to come down."
But there is another geopolitical dimension. During his first presidency, Donald Trump actively promoted the idea of a grand deal with Russia. He failed to conclude one, primarily because so much attention was focused on his ties to Russia.
However, he never abandoned the idea. He has therefore repeatedly tried to revive it and has made no secret, even in public statements, of his desire to improve strategic relations with Russia.
Until now, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine has always been the main obstacle to such a deal. Yet there is a growing impression that the White House has decided: fine, let the war continue, and let there be no apparent prospects for a peace process, but the strategic goal of improving relations with Russia remains unchanged.
The announced diesel deal is simply another small step in that direction.
It is good that Ukraine is responding creatively in this situation. We are putting forward various counterproposals, including proposals concerning elections, to which Putin repeatedly responds with rejection.
This is precisely what prevents Trump from publicly removing Ukraine from the equation by portraying it as an obstacle to a deal with Russia.
For most Republicans, criticising Trump or even simply going against his policies three weeks before the elections would be far too risky.
For now, Ukraine should be extremely cautious and seek to get through this difficult period with the smallest possible losses.
The situation in the run-up to the elections is exceptionally fluid. Donald Trump will undoubtedly continue trying to turn around an election campaign that is going against him, so all kinds of surprises are possible.
Personally, I doubt that the Democrats will manage to gain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate as a result of the midterm elections. However, an increasing number of American experts believe that such an outcome is entirely possible.
If the Democrats manage to take control of both chambers of Congress, they will be able to put Trump under considerable pressure.