How the separatist party won in Quebec and what is the likelihood of a referendum on independence

However, Alberta is not the only province where people care deeply about the question of independence. Last week, Quebec held elections to its provincial parliament, and for the first time in a long while, a party that wants the province to break away from Canada won.

Is there a threat that "stable and peaceful" Canada could see its borders redrawn on the map? And why are the situations in Quebec and Alberta fundamentally different? Read more the article by Olha Romanska, a European Pravda journalist: Quebec under separatist rule: could the province leave Canada and what does Trump have to do with it? 

It is worth looking at history to understand the origins of separatism in Quebec.

In the early 17th century, it was French colonists who first sailed to what is now Canada and established settlements in the territory of present-day Quebec.

At the same time, the English began colonising Canada.

Then, in 1763, King Louis XV sold the French colonies to Great Britain, leaving the local population with no choice in the matter.

The religious divide was even more acute than the linguistic and cultural differences: the English were Protestants, while the French were Catholics. From that point on, the Catholic Church began to exert a significant influence on life in the province – a role it retained until the middle of the last century.

Throughout those years, Quebecers did not feel they were the same as their English-speaking fellow Canadians.

Quebec nurtured its own culture and language, distinct from the rest of Canada and from France, too. After all, separatism in Quebec does not involve reunification with the former colonial power: Quebecers do not consider themselves "French". Indeed, even Canada's Constitution recognises them as a distinct people.

The modern movement to separate from Canada began in the middle of the last century, during the "Quiet Revolution" and the rise of the Liberals to power. It was then that society began moving away from the pervasive influence of the Catholic Church, developing education and the economy and starting to consider breaking away from Ottawa.

In 1980 and 1995, the Parti Québécois organised referendums in which fewer than half of the population supported the idea of independence.

In 1998, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that Quebec could not unilaterally secede simply by its own decision. At the same time, a clear majority in favour of secession would create an obligation to hold constitutional negotiations on the matter.

Finally, in October 2026, the Parti Québécois won the election to the National Assembly once again and formed a government on its own.

In its election platform, the party promised to lower gasoline taxes, reform education and healthcare, and hold a third referendum on independence.

However, it seems that US President Donald Trump has undermined the separatists’ cause.

Following his remarks about "Canada as the 51st state", they decided not to rush into losing the protection of the Canadian federation and finding themselves alone in a difficult geopolitical situation.

The Parti Québécois therefore announced that it would not hold a third independence referendum while Trump remained president.

Unlike Quebec, the separatist movement in Alberta is driven largely by economic factors rather than cultural and political ones. The argument is that the economically prosperous western provinces are "financially supporting the rest of Canada".

But here, the influence of the US president has had the opposite effect. An investigation by the Financial Times uncovered a series of secret contacts between Donald Trump's team and representatives of Alberta's separatist movement.

Nevertheless, the majority of Alberta residents oppose separation, according to the latest polls, around 70% are against it.

As in Quebec, the separatist issue in Alberta will most likely remain at the level of political slogans.