Why did Orbán’s brother end up in prison, and how the criminal investigation could threaten former PM?

The actual substance of the case, however, is not quite as shocking as the wording of the charges might suggest.

Investigators believe that Áron Orbán, together with several accomplices, arranged invitations and Schengen visas for approximately 100 Vietnamese citizens, who subsequently became illegal migrants. Helping people obtain visas using forged documents is certainly wrong, although the charge of "human trafficking" seems somewhat contrived in this particular case.

The real objective of the investigators, however, appears to be something else. They believe that Orbán’s younger brother was trading on his influence with his elder brother. Viktor Orbán himself has no doubt that the case is actually aimed at him.

Read more about the case against the brother of Hungary’s former prime minister, and its possible consequences in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: 100 Vietnamese against Orbán: how Magyar is investigating the previous government’s corruption and what is going wrong.

Six months ago, Hungary officially underwent a change of government: on 9 May, the newly appointed government of Péter Magyar took office. This marked a genuine tectonic shift for a country that Viktor Orbán had governed continuously since 2010. He had built a state propaganda machine that ensured victories for his Fidesz party even without electoral fraud.

The new government, led by Péter Magyar, came to power on a platform of condemning the criminal conduct of its predecessors – and there were substantial grounds for these allegations.

One of the campaign promises made by the Tisza party was to establish the National Office for the Protection and Recovery of Assets (NVVH), a special anti-corruption agency tasked with investigating crimes involving large-scale money laundering and the diversion of public funds.

The governing party delivered on this promise, and the first publicly known case handled by the NVVH was the investigation into Viktor Orbán’s younger brother.

On the morning of November 9, law enforcement authorities announced searches and the arrests of four people, including individuals with high-level political connections.

At present, the substance of the allegations (at least those that have been made public) is as follows: in 2024, Áron Orbán, together with three other Hungarians, arranged invitations for approximately 100 Vietnamese citizens to attend two-day training courses in Hungary, at the University of Pécs.

Using these invitations, the Vietnamese citizens obtained Hungarian Schengen visas. Most of them never even made it to the supposed place of study. All of them, without exception, remained in the EU illegally and travelled somewhere in Western Europe.

Áron Orbán is perhaps the first example of a genuinely personal associate of the former prime minister being formally accused of a crime. However, the chances that this investigation will lead to charges against Orbán himself do not currently appear particularly strong.

The main problem with this highly publicised case is that its scale is extremely limited compared with the expectations surrounding a lengthy investigation involving the Orbán name.

It is safe to say that many voters who supported the new government had significantly higher expectations regarding the criminal prosecution of members of the Orbán regime.

After all, there is no shortage of allegations against Orbán accumulated over his years in power.

The only senior government official whom investigators have reportedly come close to implicating is former Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó. During the summer, statements were made suggesting that a bribery case was under investigation, but no details have emerged. The Foreign Ministry also announced an investigation into the minister’s expensive flights. Other allegations have surfaced as well.

Getting to Szijjártó is genuinely difficult for investigators. Back in the summer, he surrendered his parliamentary mandate and moved to China to work for BYD, a company whose interests he had previously lobbied for in Hungary. (Yes, this could potentially constitute yet another criminal offence, and allegations to that effect have also been made, but with the same lack of tangible results.)

Meanwhile, a recent poll by the respected Median polling institute suggests that the policies of Péter Magyar’s government, including its approach to the previous administration, are broadly seen as appropriate and enjoy public support.

Therefore, significant changes are unlikely, either in terms of the direction of the investigations or the speed at which they are progressing.

This work genuinely takes time.