The self-proclaimed President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenka has promised to send all the Belarus troops to the Ukrainian border. His statements come amidst the joint military training that will commence on February 10th. 

European Pravda’s editor Yurii Panchenko and iSANS expert Mariya Avdeeva discuss whether this training presents a threat to Ukraine and assess if Mr. Lukashenka’s military rhetoric matches his true goals.

According to Belarusian journalists, Russia is transporting to Belarus armored vehicle "Tiger", BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles, MT-LB tractors, T-80BV tanks, Nona anti-aircraft guns, and mobile reconnaissance points. 

Russia also intends to deliver S-400 long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, Su-35 fighters, and "Pantsir" anti-aircraft missile and cannon systems. Russian OTKR "Iskander" has already been brought around.

The military training in Belarus aims to put extra pressure on Kyiv and its western allies. On the one hand, the Kremlin wants guarantees in Geneva. On the other hand, it breaches the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Mr. Lukashenka is content to fan the flames kindled by the Kremlin, talking about mythical Ukrainian radicals. Meanwhile, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs accuses the Ukrainian government of silently supporting "the mass participation of extremist Belarusian opposition with symbols of Belarusian Nazi collaborators in a nationalist march."

Interestingly, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine believes that the recent cyberattack on Ukraine could have been carried out by a hacker group with links to the Belarusian intelligence. Since the Russian and Belarusian secret services cooperate closely, we are talking about many different combinations of perpetrators.

It is, therefore, strange that in many areas Kyiv tends to turn a blind eye to Minsk’s hostile politics. At the same, despite his growing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, Mr. Lukashenka is trying not to fully break ties with Ukraine – a circumstance one should keep in mind when assessing the likelihood of a Belarusian attack on Ukraine. It is in Mr. Lukashenka’s interest to spew out pro-Russian rhetoric. However, a real attack is not what he wants.

To find out what risks Belarus faces in current circumstances, read Mr. Panchenko and Ms. Avdeeva’s article in Ukrainian Lukashenka Attacks Instead: Should Ukraine Expect a Russian Attack from Belarus.