This government will work for only two weeks, as it has almost no chance of receiving a vote of confidence in the Sejm. At least, all opposition parties ignored the first attempt to discuss the government programme held last week by Morawiecki.
It is likely that the new government will use the entire time allotted by the constitution (i.e., another two weeks) for consultations with MPs. As stated by government spokesperson Piotr Müller, the vote of confidence for the new government will likely take place on 11 December – also on the last day according to legislative requirements.
The worst part of this situation is that Ukraine is suffering the most from delaying the change of power in Poland.
Polish police record numerous instances of obligation violating by blockade organisers. In particular, they have documented some cases of blocking trucks with humanitarian aid and cargo for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The border blockade has already affected the internal Ukrainian markets, driving up prices. Currently, only fuel reserves that traders are storing in the country are saving the situation.
However, if the blockade continues until January, as promised by its organisers, reserves will be depleted, leading to a sharp increase in prices.
It seemed that the previous Polish government under Morawiecki was trying to avoid involvement in the conflict at the border.
Warsaw did nothing to unblock the border.
The Polish Ministry of Infrastructure is headed by Alvin Gajadhur, who previously the Chief Inspector of Road Transport in Poland.
The new minister may try to resolve issues at the border, but it doesn't look realistic.
Polish experts and Ukrainian officials suggest that the blockade will only be resolved with the new government of Donald Tusk. But do we have reasons to believe that this government will act differently?
Three key positions for Ukraine in the future Polish government will be occupied by the Polish Peasant Party (PSL) – a right-conservative party that supports Ukraine but insists on protecting national interests.
Local elections and elections to the European Parliament will be held in Poland in 2024. The main competitors of the Polish Peasant Party will be other right-wing political forces: PiS and Confederation.
In such a situation, it can be assumed that representatives of the Peasant Party will insist on resolving disputes with Ukraine through compromises.
Therefore, with a high probability, this problem will be resolved by the end of the year, but most likely, it will require action from Kyiv.
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