Russia expects war with NATO over the next decade – Estonian intelligence

Tuesday, 13 February 2024

Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service has said that Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West over the next decade.

According to Reuters, at a press conference, Kaupo Rosin, the chief of the intelligence service, noted that this assessment is based on Russia's plans to double the number of troops deployed along the border with Finland, as well as Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

"Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so," he said.

He believes that a military attack by Russia is "highly unlikely" in the short term, partly because Moscow is forced to keep troops in Ukraine, and will remain unlikely if the Russian military build-up is matched by the build-up in Europe.

Speaking about the Russian war against Ukraine, Rosin noted that he believes it is unlikely that Russian occupation forces will make a significant breakthrough before the Russian presidential elections, as Russia will need to mobilise significantly more troops to achieve its goals.

Russia's ability to supply its troops with ammunition continues to outweigh Ukraine's, and unless Western support is maintained or increased, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to change the situation on the battlefield, he added.

In recent weeks, a number of European NATO countries have also warned the public of the risk of Russian aggression in the near future.

Boris Pistorius, Federal Minister of Defence of Germany, said that Russia might attack a NATO country in the next 5-8 years.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Mikael Büden, and the Minister of Civil Defence, Karl Oscar Bolin, said that all Swedish citizens should be prepared for war.

Commander-in-Chief of the Norwegian Armed Forces, General Eirik Kristoffersen, believes that his country has little time left to increase defence production to be able to withstand Russia’s aggression.

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