Germany warns Russia may test NATO resolve, with Ukraine as a stepping stone

Bruno Kahl, President of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), has stated that Russia intends to test NATO by gradually pushing the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders.

As reported by Reuters, Kahl noted that his agency possesses clear intelligence suggesting that Russian officials no longer view NATO’s collective defence commitments as practically binding.

"We are quite certain, and we have intelligence showing it, that Ukraine is only a step on the journey westwards," Kahl said.

However, Kahl emphasised that this does not mean Germany expects Russian tank armies to head westwards. "But we see that NATO's collective defence promise is to be tested," he added.

Without revealing the sources of intelligence, Kahl explained that Russian officials are considering confrontations short of full-scale war to probe whether the United States would indeed fulfil its mutual defence obligations under Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

"They don't need to dispatch armies of tanks for that. It's enough to send little green men to Estonia to protect supposedly oppressed Russian minorities," he said, referring to Russia’s 2014 occupation of Crimea.

Kahl also stated that his conversations with his US counterparts convinced him they take the Russian threat seriously.

"They take it as seriously as us, thank God," he concluded.

Earlier, EU Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius echoed Western intelligence assessments that a Russian attack on European Union states could occur within the next few years.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has also stated that Russia is building up its military capabilities and could be ready to use force against NATO countries within five years.

Read also: European Defence Commissioner: "An attack on an EU and NATO member is a very real threat"