Why power might change in the Netherlands and how that could benefit Ukraine
A much-anticipated political shake-up has finally happened in the Netherlands. The ruling coalition, which lasted 335 days while often barely holding together, has collapsed.
The Netherlands now faces attempts to reformat the coalition and likely snap elections.
Read morea about the current political crisis and why it could be good news for Ukraine in the article by Daria Meshcheriakova, a European Pravda journalist (from Eindhoven): The far right’s retreat: why the Dutch government collapsed and what it means for Ukraine.
The immediate trigger for the crisis was criticism from far-right anti-Muslim politician Geert Wilders, who accused the government of having too soft a migration policy.
As a result, Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) exited the coalition, leaving Prime Minister Dick Schoof with no option but to resign.
At the center of the turmoil was Marjolein Faber, the far-right Minister for Asylum and Migration, known for her extreme views and appointed by the PVV. In recent weeks, she had been pushing radical legislative initiatives, including a complete halt to accepting asylum seekers.
Her unilateral actions and lack of coordination with coalition partners increased tensions. According to Wilders, "she had the courage to do what others were afraid to."
Faber was tasked with implementing the tough migration policy promised by the Schoof government, but Wilders demanded immediate endorsement of his 10-point plan. However, after 11 months in office, Faber achieved virtually nothing.
Snap elections are now likely, possibly in late October or November.
Left-wing leaders are already calling for new elections. Frans Timmermans, head of the Green-Left and Labour alliance (GroenLinks–PvdA), has demanded swift elections and ruled out working with current coalition parties: "A stable government is impossible with them."
His call was echoed by Dilan Yeşilgöz, leader of the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), who also supports snap elections.
These elections could significantly shift the Dutch political landscape.
Support for the Freedom Party has declined, even though it remains the most popular single party. Its success in the November 2023 elections came amid a surge of anti-Muslim sentiment following the Hamas terror attacks in Israel on 7 October.
Now, the context has changed. The Freedom Party is unlikely to replicate its 2023 results and could even lose its leading position by autumn, as both Timmermans’ left bloc and the VVD are gaining ground.
In the longer term, the current crisis might benefit Ukraine.
The collapse of the coalition and the potential exclusion of the Freedom Party from any future government could be strategically positive for Kyiv. Any government formed without PVV involvement is expected to be more supportive of Ukraine.
At this point, the most likely scenario is the formation of a center-left coalition involving Timmermans’ bloc and the VVD.