Which Moldovan parties are ready to serve the Kremlin and how the elections threaten Kyiv

On 28 September, parliamentary elections are set to be held in the Republic of Moldova.

The new government to be formed in Chișinău won’t just be decisive for Moldova’s future, but for Ukraine as well. And the issue is not only whether Moldova will officially announce that it is turning towards Russia. Much more realistic – and at the same time more dangerous – are the "hybrid" scenarios the Kremlin is currently working on.

Read more about the risks that the results of Moldova’s parliamentary elections pose for Ukraine, as well as possible scenarios, in the article by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: From paid voters to Romania-lovers: who's helping the Kremlin hack Moldova's elections?

With just days to go before Moldova’s parliamentary elections, there is even less clarity about their outcome than there was a few months ago.

At the start of the summer, analysts agreed that three parties were virtually certain to enter parliament: the ruling pro-Western PAS (Party of Action and Solidarity), aligned with President Maia Sandu; the pro-Russian bloc led by former president Igor Dodon; and the Alternative bloc, headed by popular Chișinău mayor Ion Ceban, who aimed to attract centrist voters reluctant to back either left– or right-wing favourites. The populist Renato Usatîi also had a chance of winning a seat.

Now the picture has changed. These shifts could alter the balance between Russia and the EU.

The two frontrunners remain the same, though.

The most likely outcome is that the ruling PAS party will take first place, with Dodon’s Patriotic Bloc coming second. Yet even this is uncertain. Opinion polls in Moldova do not reflect reality. Around a third of respondents decline to say who their preferred candidate is or claim to be "undecided". Pollsters suspect that most of this group will vote against the ruling party but do not feel safe admitting this publicly.

So Dodon’s bloc finishing in first place can’t be ruled out.

The second party considered a potential member of a pro-Russian coalition is the Alternative bloc. Yet while its entry into parliament was regarded as a done deal at the start of the campaign, this is no longer the case.

Finally, there are two other pro-Russian parties that could unexpectedly enter parliament.

The party in question is Moldova Mare (Greater Moldova), which has territorial claims against Ukraine in its manifesto. In other words, it is campaigning for parliament on a pledge to annex part of Odesa oblast.

It was founded and is led by Victoria Furtună, a protégé of fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Șor, who now lives in Moscow and works for the Kremlin coordinating Russian activities in Moldova.

The fact is that the Russians have managed to implement a unique project in Moldova – the so-called Șor network, through which voters in poor regions receive money transferred from a Russian bank (Promsvyazbank, which is tied to Russia’s Ministry of Defence). 

Another party with a chance of entering Moldova’s parliament is Democraţia Acasă (Democracy at Home).

At first glance, this populist party seems to have nothing to do with the Kremlin. It is a unionist party, meaning it supports the unification of Moldova with Romania. Its main partner is the Romanian nationalist party AUR and its leader, George Simion – currently the most popular politician in Romania – who has been actively campaigning for them on TikTok, social media and beyond. 

Democraţia Acasă is headed by Vasile Costiuc, a relatively unknown Moldovan politician (and, as is usually the case in Moldova, a Romanian citizen).

It was after this that Costiuc caught the attention of Romanian investigative journalists, who uncovered plentiful evidence of his cooperation with the FSB.

But could far-right unionists really join forces with Dodon’s left-wing/ultra-left Patriotic Bloc? The answer is clear – yes they could. 

It is vitally important for Ukraine that the Moldovan government should continue to be PAS-led.

Moldova is an extremely important logistical partner for both exports and imports, including critical supplies such as fuel.

Politically, however, the most crushing blow could be dealt to Ukraine’s European integration.

If Moldova finds itself blocked for internal reasons, this will undermine Ukraine’s path to accession as well. Fortunately, this scenario is not guaranteed.

Despite the problems faced by Sandu’s party, it still has a good chance of election victory.