How many years Ukraine needs to join EU and why anti-corruption reform lags
Ukraine has repeatedly declared that it is ready to start negotiations on joining the EU even today and that is indeed the case. An official negotiating group has been created, and Oleksandr Korniienko, First Deputy Speaker of Ukrainian Parliament, is among them. He is "responsible for accession on behalf of Parliament" in the current government.
We met at the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] shortly after Brussels delivered its Enlargement Report to Ukraine, which showed a serious lag in Ukraine’s pace compared to the leading candidate countries.
Oleksandr Korniienko spoke to European Pravda's editor Sergiy Sydorenko about three major reforms and three stages from which lessons should be drawn, whether Kyiv is ready to speed up reforms and what causes the delays. You can read more in the article: Politically, you can’t be against EU now. If you oppose EU accession, you’re a Kremlin agent.
The EU’s report on reforms in Ukraine is not entirely positive but not entirely negative either. There are many aspects that require attention. "I would say it’s mixed," Korniienko said.
From what is currently known, the national adaptation programme will require at least two to three years of very intensive work to align all the legislation necessary within the accession process.
For Ukraine to be ready to join the EU, it will be necessary to adopt between 500 and 1,000 laws. The exact number will become clear once the national aligment programme is ready.
However, Korniienko has an idea of how this number could be reduced. "I don’t rule out that we might consolidate at a later stage when we need to accelerate the process, for example, by adopting one large law that amends many others. The parliamentary rules allow this," he said.
Therefore, the year 2028, mentioned by the European Commission, seems quite realistic.
But for this to happen, we must learn from our mistakes and draw conclusions from the stages we have gone through.
"I distinguish three stages," he continued.
The first is the Association Agreement. "The lesson we should have learned from it," he said, "is that even at the design stage we need an inclusive process involving all stakeholders."
The second is the candidacy stage (2022–2023). "At that time, we acted very emotionally, but also very well as a country. We agreed to very controversial things, like the Istanbul Convention, and this helped us obtain the decision to open negotiations. Our actions gave German Chancellor Olaf Scholz the basis to 'take Viktor Orbán for coffee.'"
"Yes, we sent a very good signal and set a fast pace, but in doing so we created unrealistic expectations among our partners. Such expectations that they, as bureaucrats, immediately relied upon. The mistake was that we didn’t inform them that it wouldn’t always be that way," he admitted.
The next stage is related to fulfilling the conditions of the Ukraine Facility financial support programme. "The lesson we should learn," said Korniienko, "is that MPs, government officials and representatives of the EU need to discuss draft laws even before their registration."
"At this stage we are fully experiencing the mistakes of the previous ones – insufficient engagement with stakeholders and unrealistic expectations. During the accession phase, it will be even more important to involve MPs in drafting the legislation," he added.
Ten years have passed since the launch of three major reforms – anti-corruption, judicial and decentralisation. These are cross-cutting and "inherited" reforms that Ukraine began under President Poroshenko and continues today.
"All of them are important for Ukrainian society," Korniienko said, "but they have all developed differently."
"The most successful one is decentralisation."
"As for anti-corruption reform, the idea is right, the implementation is partly right, but it never gained full momentum. It is already deeply integrated, but we need to keep working step by step so that the system delivers what society expects from it."