How the blackmail scandal involving Czech president has it Ukraine and what to expect next
Czechia has plunged into a full-blown political crisis, triggered by a conflict between President Petr Pavel and the coalition party Motorists for Themselves just a month and a half into the work of the new government.
On 27 January, the Czech president delivered an emergency address in which he stated that he had been subjected to blackmail and threats by Foreign Minister Petr Macinka. According to the president, Macinka demanded the appointment of his party colleague Filip Turek to a ministerial post, threatening "consequences that would be very unexpected for him (and not only for him)."
Read more about the political confrontation in Czechia and its likely consequences in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's editor: "The president will not allow himself to be blackmailed": how the political crisis in Czechia has hit Ukraine.
First, the essence of the conflict.
The current government of Andrej Babiš is operating with an incomplete cabinet, as the president has refused to appoint Filip Turek, the honourary chairman of the Motorists party, as minister of the environment.
The reason for the refusal lies in the politician’s social media posts, albeit from many years ago, which contain numerous allusions to Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and fascist dictator Benito Mussolini, homophobic and misogynistic statements, as well as expressions condoning crimes against the Roma.
The Motorists, however, insist that the president is abusing his authority and even violating the country’s constitution.
At the same time, Turek is the face of the party, ensuring the loyalty of its core electorate. Therefore, when he threatened to leave the party if he did not receive a ministerial portfolio, the Motorists effectively had no alternative.
Seeing that the president was not going to change his position, Foreign Minister Petr Macinka resorted to threats.
In a letter to the president’s adviser, Macinka wrote that he would be traveling to Brussels on Wednesday, where he would hold important meetings.
"By that time, I will need to know my position, because I will be speaking both to the most important foreign partners and to the largest foreign media outlets," the Czech foreign minister wrote.
In the same letter, he also stated that it was precisely because of President Petr Pavel that Ukrainians would not receive L-159 aircraft, which have the potential to become effective weapons against drones, including jet-powered ones. Prime Minister Andrej Babiš announced a refusal to sell the aircraft to Ukraine, even though the Czech military itself supports the sale.
It appears that Babiš’s government was initially not opposed to selling the aircraft, but later decided to use the issue as leverage against the president.
And when Petr Pavel brought the matter into the public sphere, the government decided to "punish" him by refusing to sell the aircraft to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the prime minister is unwilling either to escalate the conflict with the president or to "hand over" his foreign minister.
The question of whether Macinka’s letters can be interpreted as blackmail is being actively debated in Czechia. However, an official answer is to be provided by law enforcement authorities – an investigation has been launched following the president’s complaint. The case will be handled by the National Centre against Organized Crime (NCOZ), an elite unit of the Czech police.
Beyond potential criminal consequences, however, this story will undoubtedly have political repercussions. The question is: what kind?
Coalition partners have already caused significant problems for Prime Minister Babiš more than once. Moreover, there is a growing sense that "the tail is wagging the dog" – that is, a party with nearly three times as many MPs as all its coalition partners combined is allowing them to dictate the agenda.
The prime minister needs the votes of the SPD and the Motorists in two key votes: on the state budget and on stripping Babiš of parliamentary immunity in an old case involving alleged EU subsidy fraud.
At the same time, rumors are already circulating that consultations are underway within the prime minister’s inner circle with opposition MPs about the possibility of sustaining a minority government with opposition support.