Could EU withhold funding from Ukraine over a pseudo-reform and why has this become an issue?
The Ukraine Recovery Conference, which was recently held in Gdańsk, left participants from different sectors with very different impressions.
There is growing disappointment among experts and civil society representatives that the conference once again failed to become a venue for resolving problems with Ukraine's European reform agenda. And those problems are becoming increasingly serious. The EU is already well aware of them.
In essence, Ukraine's European partners are facing a difficult choice.
European Pravda discussed this issue in Brussels with Mykhailo Zhernakov of the DEJURE Foundation. He was part of a delegation of Ukrainian experts visiting EU institutions to explain what is really happening with reforms in the areas of the rule of law and anti-corruption.
Zhernakov argues that there are now signs of a rollback of one of Ukraine's main reforms. Read more in the article: Two ways to penalise Ukraine: How EU faces a difficult choice over judicial reform.
The state of reforms in Ukraine is "not good". Yet, despite this, the European Commission continues to publicly claim that everything is on track.
The EU's willingness to overlook problems in Ukraine is not new. However, a year ago this approach ended badly – with attacks on civil society, as well as on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO). At the time, spontaneous protests by ordinary citizens, known as the "people with cardboard signs" protests, managed to reverse the situation. But now, Ukraine appears to be repeating the same mistakes.
Moreover, there is now a new precedent that did not exist last year.
Ukraine has adopted a law that is, in substance, an anti-reform, the law on judges' integrity declarations, yet the European Commission has accepted it as fulfilling Ukraine's reform commitment.
The European Commission has its own rationale, and it is not without merit. It is attempting to safeguard funding already allocated to Ukraine. Specifically, €400 million was tied to the reform of judges' integrity declarations.
As a result, a dangerous precedent is being created: for the first time in 12 years of EU assistance, Kyiv could receive European funding for implementing what critics describe as an anti-reform.
Such a precedent could have profound consequences – not only for judicial reform, but for the broader reform process in Ukraine.
Judges' integrity declarations are one of the few remaining mechanisms for cleansing Ukraine's judiciary.
European Pravda previously analysed the law and its implications in the article.
EU member states now find themselves in a difficult position. They understand that Ukraine has adopted what many view as an anti-reform, and they must choose between two unappealing options.
One option is to overlook the problem, effectively endorse the anti-reform and approve the next financial tranche, knowing that doing so could undermine Ukraine's reform process, including reforms essential for EU membership. In particular, it would likely delay meaningful changes to Ukraine's Supreme Court for a considerable period.
The alternative is to take a firmer stance by refusing to release the funds until Ukraine genuinely fulfills its commitments. However, this would expose EU governments to accusations that they are abandoning Ukraine and depriving it of critically important financial assistance during wartime – an outcome they are also eager to avoid.
At this stage, it is impossible to predict which course they will choose.
According to informal conversations with member-state representatives, many acknowledge that this is an extremely difficult dilemma and argue that the European Commission itself created the situation.
Behind this debate lies a more fundamental question: does Ukraine's leadership truly understand that without genuine rule-of-law reforms, the country's path toward EU membership will stall? There appears to be a perception among some decision-makers that Ukraine may be admitted to the EU regardless.
"I sincerely hope we will not once again reach the point where people have to take to the streets.
But both our government and our European partners need to listen to Ukrainian society. Public opinion surveys consistently show that Ukrainians demand reforms.
A recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) found that Ukrainians actually want the European Union to exert pressure on the authorities to ensure reforms are carried out.