President of Finland on non-public peace talks, Ukraine's EU and NATO membership and harsh winter

Alexander or Alex Stubb is one of those politicians whose importance to Ukraine goes far beyond his official position. The former prime minister, now president, of Finland has been a staunch supporter of our country and maintains close, trusting relations with the Ukrainian leadership. But most importantly, he is one of the few Europeans who has a good personal relationship with US President Donald Trump.

This has made Stubb a natural intermediary in discussions with the United States concerning Ukraine and ending the war.

Finland’s own experience of war with Russia makes his involvement all the more significant. 

We discussed these issues, as well as Ukraine’s European future, in Kyiv, which the president was visiting to attend celebrations marking Ukraine’s Independence Day. Read the full interview by Sergiy Sydorenko, European Pravda's editor: Stubb: After war with Russia, Finland agreed to lose territory. But it’s not going to be like that for Ukraine.

Since I became president, I think this is my fifth visit. Things are looking much better now than they were two and a half years ago.

I think right now, if you look at the military side, the Ukrainian offensive has been very strong for about 8 to 9 months.

But that doesn't mean that winter is not coming.

It will come, and that's one of the reasons why Finland is working a lot on energy supply to Ukraine, on electricity, on diesel generators, for instance, made by a Finnish company called Wärtsilä.

We have to prepare for the worst. 

Let’s look at what could make Putin and Russia end the war.

If you look at reasons for Putin or for Russia to end this war, the economy will not be a reason. The Russian economy is doing badly, but that's not going to be a reason to end the war.

Dead or wounded soldiers are not going to be a reason either, because we’re already talking over a million, and it's not making a difference in Russia.

But the thing that might make a difference is people turning against the war.

And now we're seeing, with what I call legitimate opinion polls, about 65% of Russians wanting to end the war. 

It's impossible to give it a date. I think we need to work pretty much on three tracks: to continue to supply Ukraine with the necessary means for it to continue to conduct the war; to continue the policy of sanctions; and the negotiation track.

But eventually there will be a day when perhaps Russia understands that it has lost this war or that it will not achieve its strategic aims, and that is the time to work on it.

So we work a lot with the Americans and of course with our Ukrainian friends almost every day, and with the Europeans, to try to bring Russia to the negotiating table. But I can't give you a deadline for it. 

But I do feel that the Americans are in the lead on the negotiations.

But of course, we cannot take decisions on Europe over Europe. So I try to work in the back office and engage with as many people as I can.

And Europe's red lines are that there's no conversation about European security without Europe. That is the absolute starting point. And I think all Ukrainians need to have the mindset that we are on the same team – Ukraine and Europe, or Ukraine and Finland.

And that's why I for instance think that eventually we should have Ukrainian EU membership and NATO membership. The window of opportunity has opened right now.

But I think, in earnest, not only have you already won the war, but at the end of the day, you will win the war. And that is linked to the theory of warfare. If a big aggressor tries to deny the independence, sovereignty and full territorial integrity of a country, and that country survives it, then by definition it wins.

That's why we in Finland talked about a "defence victory" at the end of the day.

Probably because it's so similar. In 1939, Russia attacked us, and we went through the Winter War in very harsh conditions. But that was only 105 days, whereas you've been at war now for over 1,600 days with four harsh winters. 

And then of course Finland had the War of Continuation.