How could anti-Ukrainian forces enter Romania's government and what could prevent it?

Romania’s main far-right party, the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), has a chance to enter the government.

Politicians in parliament are openly discussing this possibility. It is still unclear whether this is merely a bluff aimed at pressuring other lawmakers into making concessions, or whether such a scenario could actually materialize.

Meanwhile, law enforcement agencies have made their move in this political game by detaining Călin Georgescu, a far-right populist with pro-Russian sentiments. Although there are no solid grounds for claiming that these actions were politically motivated, they will certainly have political consequences.

Read more about Romania’s political developments and how they might unfold in the article by Serhiy Herasymchuk of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism": Crime in favour of the coalition: how Romania is trying to form a government and whether it will include anti-Ukrainian figures. 

The attention surrounding Călin Georgescu, along with the sense of grievance among those who had planned to vote for him in the final round of the election – and there were many such voters in Romania – became a catalyst for the rise in support for the far-right AUR party.

This far-right political force "picked up Georgescu’s banner" and even sought to win a majority in the Romanian parliament.

From the perspective of Romania’s relations with the EU and Ukraine, such a scenario would have been catastrophic.

Russophiles, Europhobes, and anti-Ukrainian politicians from AUR entering the Romanian government would clearly mean a change in Bucharest’s approach to supporting Ukraine, worsening relations with Brussels and a deep division within Romanian society. It is also worth noting that AUR leader George Simion is banned from entering Moldova and Ukraine, and there are numerous reasons for this.

The worst-case scenario was avoided at that time.

However, the parliamentary coalition that was formed immediately contained structural weaknesses, and those shortcomings have now become apparent.

In April 2026, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) decided to withdraw its support for the coalition government led by Ilie Bolojan and formed with its coalition partners, the National Liberal Party (PNL).

The government was implementing unpopular measures and the Social Democrats refused to share the resulting political burden.

Then, in May, parliament voted to dismiss the government by passing a vote of no confidence.

And it did so with the combined votes of the Social Democrats and the far-right AUR!

But while they were able to bring down Bolojan’s government, they were unable to form a new one.

The government crisis dragged on, month after month, with no solution in sight. And the only political force benefiting from this was George Simion’s AUR.

The far-right opposition once again gained arguments for claiming that the mainstream parties were incapable of governing the country, essentially, "See? They’re fighting among themselves again; it’s time to remove them from power!"

On 17 September, President Nicușor Dan tried another way out of the crisis and proposed a new candidate for prime minister – Siegfried Mureșan.

However, there are not enough votes to approve his appointment.

Against the backdrop of the crisis, Social Democratic leader Sorin Grindeanu did not rule out the possibility that the Social Democrats could choose the next prime minister in cooperation with AUR. In other words, the temporary alliance that had already emerged during the government’s ouster now had a chance to turn into a formal coalition.

However, it appears that Grindeanu may be deliberately raising the stakes in order to prevent early parliamentary elections, while leaving the radicals in the role of a minority player. Early elections could further strengthen the far right’s position in parliament.

A potential obstacle to an AUR-Social Democratic coalition emerged in the form of Călin Georgescu, against whom law enforcement launched a new public phase of a criminal case on 21 September. Because of the reputational risks associated with a potential coalition partner, the Social Democrats gained an incentive to return to negotiations with the National Liberals.

If the crisis continues, it could come at a high cost for Romania, while Ukraine risks losing a reliable ally.