Why Serbia sabotaged its rapprochement with Ukraine and what the consequences will be

Sanctioned Ukrainian oligarch Vadym Novynskyi has obtained Serbian citizenship through an expedited provision approved by the Serbian government.

Why did Novynskyi, who had until now been living comfortably in the EU without fearing extradition to Ukraine, suddenly need the additional protection of Serbian citizenship? And how is this connected to the upcoming parliamentary elections in Serbia and the recent resignation of its president?

Read more in the article by European Pravda co-founder Yurii Panchenko: A backup landing strip for an oligarch: how Novynskyi became a Serbian citizen and why Vučić needs him. 

Vadym Novynskyi is a former member of Ukraine’s parliament and a billionaire who is facing several criminal investigations in Ukraine, including one under the article on high treason. As part of that investigation, a Ukrainian court ordered his pretrial detention in absentia. He is also facing a case involving alleged tax fraud, which, according to investigators, resulted in approximately UAH 4.3 billion in lost state budget revenue.

He currently officially resides in Croatia. This became known through Novynskyi’s lawyers after Ukraine imposed personal sanctions on him. They reported that the Ukrainian businessman had held "temporary protection" status since 2023. This status is granted in the EU to people who have fled Ukraine because of the war, although there are no restrictions preventing people who are also fleeing criminal prosecution from obtaining it.

Although Novynskyi has the right to reside in Croatia, this protection is relative. The only reasonably reliable guarantee against extradition to Ukraine may be citizenship: European countries do not extradite their own citizens in response to extradition requests.

The key is to make it to the country of which you are a citizen if an international arrest warrant is issued.

Obtaining a Croatian passport is difficult.

Neighbouring Serbia is an easy choice. The Serbian government’s practice of granting citizenship outside the established procedures is fairly widespread. The European Union has long criticised this practice, including because numerous Russian nationals have obtained Serbian citizenship through this route.

Novynskyi’s interest in obtaining Serbian citizenship is therefore understandable.

He received Serbian citizenship through an expedited procedure, without publicly renouncing his Ukrainian citizenship.

Formally, the decision was made by the Serbian government, but undoubtedly not without the approval of President Aleksandar Vučić.

But what motivated the Serbian government to make this decision?

According to European Pravda, the formal initiative to grant him citizenship came from the Serbian Orthodox Church, one of the Russian Orthodox Church’s and the Kremlin’s most loyal allies.

Novynskyi is known for his close ties to the leadership of the Russian Orthodox Church.

However, beyond the church’s influence, there is also a political dimension.

On the evening of 27 September – coincidentally or not, immediately after the prime minister signed the decision granting Novynskyi citizenship – Aleksandar Vučić announced his resignation as president of Serbia.

This was an entirely expected move. Vučić’s second presidential term ends in the spring, and he is constitutionally barred from seeking a third. He is therefore setting his sights on the position of prime minister. The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) has announced that it will contest the parliamentary elections on 25 October with Vučić as its candidate for the next head of government.

Anti-Western and pro-Russian sentiments remain popular in Serbian society, and Vučić is seeking to capitalise on them.

Having demonstrated his "friendship" with the West through closer ties with Ukraine (Kyiv and Belgrade have recently been actively working to gradually improve bilateral relations) Vučić is now seeking to reassure his core electorate. The passport granted to Novynskyi is a small element of the broader picture, helping him demonstrate this. And if Ukraine publicly criticises the move, Vučić will have an additional reason to be grateful.