How Russians are fleeing Russia and why this creates risks for Georgia
Huge queues but only in one direction. This has been the scene at the Russian-Georgian border in recent weeks.
A large number of Russians, frightened by rumours of mobilisation, are rushing to leave Russia as quickly as possible.
And Georgia is the most convenient option for them. A shared land border, a visa-free regime and the Georgian government's relatively accommodating attitude have made Georgia a convenient place of residence for many Russian expatriates.
Read more about the mass influx of Russian citizens into Georgia and its potential consequences in the article by Yurii Panchenko and Amiran Khevtsuriani: Escape from mobilisation: how Russians are 'storming' Georgia ahead of the elections and what threats this poses.
According to available information, during the second-to-last week of August alone, more than 113,000 people and over 33,000 vehicles left Russia through the Upper Lars border crossing. This was a record level of traffic through the checkpoint.
Many observers view the sharp increase in cross-border movement as one of the indirect indicators of growing fears within Russian society about the possible announcement of a new wave of mobilisation.
Such sentiments have largely been fueled by measures taken by the Russian authorities in recent months. Russia has been steadily strengthening mechanisms for conscripting citizens into military service, intensifying the collection and systematisation of data on reservists and expanding the powers of the National Guard, Rosgvardiya.
The mass influx of Russian citizens is not a new phenomenon for Georgia. A similar situation occurred in September 2022, when Russian leader Vladimir Putin first announced a "partial military mobilisation".
According to the results of the 2024 population census, nearly 38,000 Russian citizens were living in Georgia – around one-third of all foreign nationals residing in the country.
By 2026, however, the number of Russians had risen to 72,000, representing 2% of Georgia’s population.
The current surge could double that figure, especially if Russia does indeed begin a new mobilisation.
According to Irakli Pavlenishvili, one of the leaders of the opposition United National Movement party, up to 40,000 Russian companies have been registered in Georgia since 2022 alone. "They are creating even more problems for Georgian small and medium-sized businesses, which are already in a difficult position," the opposition politician argues.
In addition, rental prices for apartments in Tbilisi and Batumi have doubled over the past several years.
Combined with the demonstrative unwillingness of many newcomers to learn the Georgian language and their frequent disregard for local rules, negative attitudes toward Russian arrivals are growing within Georgian society.
And these are far from the only problems associated with the mass exodus from Russia.
In recent years, the South Caucasus country has repeatedly faced attempts by people connected to Russia’s state propaganda system to enter the country, as well as individuals whose activities were directly or indirectly linked to violations of Georgian legislation concerning its occupied territories.
Moreover, large-scale and insufficiently controlled migration flows naturally increase risks to national security.
People connected to Russian intelligence services could easily enter Georgia.
This could lead to increased intelligence or information operations, an expansion of Russia’s economic and social levers of influence and a stronger Russian political and informational presence.
The situation involving the mass arrival of Russians in Georgia is gradually turning into a ticking time bomb capable of destabilizing the country.
However, the Georgian authorities are diligently ignoring the problem.
This apparent unwillingness to acknowledge the issue only increases the likelihood of a social explosion.