How Bulgaria's pro-Russian PM could gain his own president and why it matters
The first round of Bulgaria’s presidential election is set to be held on 25 October.
The main contenders are Iliana Iotova, the current acting president, and pro-Ukrainian former prime minister Andrey Gyurov.
Iotova is a former deputy to pro-Russian ex-president and current prime minister Rumen Radev. A victory for the governing camp’s candidate would allow Bulgaria to follow the path of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, with growing authoritarian tendencies, the protection of Russian interests and anti-European campaigns.
A victory for the opposition candidate, by contrast, would not guarantee a swift change of course for Bulgaria, but it would offer a chance of one in the not-too-distant future.
Read more about the election dynamics and the challenges for Ukraine and the EU in the article by Serhii Herasymchuk and Volodymyr-Nazarii Havrish of the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council: Almost a Kremlin ally: how Bulgaria’s election could strengthen pro-Russian Radev’s grip on power.
Bulgaria has been mired in persistent political turmoil since 2021.
In 2026, Rumen Radev, then president, capitalised on voters’ fatigue with the endless cycle of elections.
He resigned from the presidency early, although his final term was due to end that autumn anyway, and, buoyed by high public approval, launched his own bid in the snap parliamentary election.
In April this year, the new political force founded by the former president, Progressive Bulgaria, won 131 of the 240 parliamentary seats, completely shifting the balance of political power in its favour.
During nearly six months in power, Radev’s government and Progressive Bulgaria have taken a series of unusual and openly authoritarian steps. Almost immediately after parliamentary groups were formed, the party began consolidating its power and restricting the opposition’s rights.
Effectively threatening to veto the entire package of EU sanctions against Russia, Radev’s government picked up where former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán left off after losing power and becoming unable to serve Russia’s interests.
Sofia secured the lifting of sanctions against Patriarch Kirill and Vagit Alekperov, the former head of Lukoil.
Bulgaria also halted a major Rheinmetall project to build factories producing gunpowder and ammunition, ostensibly because of insufficient funds in the state budget.
The Radev government’s approach to Ukraine has been equally revealing.
On 14 July, Prime Minister Rumen Radev refused to join the Coalition of the Willing. He later stated that Bulgaria’s foreign minister had not signed a joint declaration in Kyiv on 15 July, during the Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit. The declaration recognised the importance of the coalition’s work as an effective mechanism for supporting Ukraine.
A similar episode occurred in New York this September, involving President Iliana Iotova. According to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, Bulgaria had joined the signing of a joint statement expressing full solidarity with Ukraine in its war against Russia. Iotova subsequently claimed that she had signed nothing.
The main contenders in the election – Bulgarians vote for a president and vice president at the same time– are two tickets: Iliana Iotova and Kiril Vilchev, mentioned above, and opposition candidates Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev.
The latest opinion polls paint the following picture: Iotova and Vilchev are polling at 44-47%, while Gyurov and Kandev have 24-26%.
Under the scenario that currently appears more likely, Iliana Iotova will win the election.
In that case, Rumen Radev would gain greater leverage to consolidate his personal power, block EU sanctions packages, and make political statements that call into question Sofia’s solidarity with the EU and NATO. However, Bulgaria’s full withdrawal from either organisation is not expected for now.
At the same time, the election could produce a surprise. According to Alpha Research, around 30% of voters may change their minds on election day.
Even if Gyurov is elected president, however, Bulgaria’s foreign policy will remain pro-Russian. A pro-Western president would nevertheless have tools to restrain the authoritarian trends demonstrated by Radev.