How Putin's ousted "friend" is deepening the crisis in the Balkans
The standoff in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is escalating.
On 18 August, the Appeals Council of the Court of BiH upheld the ruling against the president of Republika Srpska (an entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina), Milorad Dodik, and rejected his appeal of the Central Election Commission’s decision to suspend his presidential powers.
Thus, on 18 August one of Putin’s key "friends" in Europe became the former president of Republika Srpska, reduced to being just a citizen of this entity without a diplomatic passport, which has been annulled. New presidential elections are set to be held on 23 November.
Ex-president Dodik refused to accept this ruling and launched yet another assault on justice, stability and the unity of the state.
Read more about how Putin’s "friend" plans to destabilise the political situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the article by Western Balkans expert Volodymyr Tsybulnyk: The indispensable Dodik: will it be possible to remove the Balkans’ chief separatist from power?
On the very same day Dodik’s verdict was confirmed, the prime minister of Republika Srpska, Radovan Višković, submitted his resignation to him and it was accepted.
This created a deadlock: the former president Dodik illegally accepted the resignation of a sitting prime minister (which is invalid), and then illegally nominated a new candidate (also invalid).
And if Dodik’s nominee, Savo Minić, is approved by the National Assembly of Republika Srpska (which is likely, since Dodik’s party still holds a majority), who will dare recognize him as a legitimate prime minister and cooperate with him?
None of the international institutions (with the obvious exceptions of Russian, Serbian, or Hungarian ones) will engage with an illegitimate government. On top of that, such a government would face problems accessing the state budget and drag the Republika Srpska economy even deeper into crisis.
Meanwhile, Milorad Dodik announced a referendum on confidence in himself.
On 25 August, the National Assembly of Republika Srpska approved the holding of a referendum on 25 October with a long and manipulative question.
This referendum has no legal force, and any claims to the contrary are lies and dangerous illusions aimed against the rule of law.
Dodik’s statements that only the citizens of Republika Srpska can decide his fate are pure speculation.
Moreover, the RS budget makes no provision for holding a referendum.
In addition, Dodik is threatening other referendums that would "tear RS from the dead embrace" of Bosnia and Herzegovinф. In other words, he is threatening secession.
The Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina has scheduled snap presidential elections in Republika Srpska for 23 November.
Therefore, the former RS president insists he is not afraid of elections, but wants them held on his own terms.
To that end, Dodik has proposed that the elections be conducted by an electoral commission of Republika Srpska itself, one formed under the control of the ruling party (opening wide possibilities for fraud).
It has already been announced that by the end of August the new government of Republika Srpska will set its own election date, while the official elections scheduled by BiH’s Central Election Commission will be boycotted by the separatists.
Still, it seems that Dodik is not confident in his ability to carry out this plan.