Why Zelenskyy moved closer to Tsikhanouskaya and why Ukraine needs it
Over the past few months, Ukraine’s policy towards Belarus has changed officially and, it seems, irreversibly – much to the delight of the Belarusian opposition. For many Belarusians, Ukraine serves as a kind of role model, and its importance has only grown in recent years. This shift is therefore genuinely significant for those Belarusians who seek to overthrow the Lukashenko regime.
Read more in article by Sergiy Sydorenko and Yurii Panchenko of European Pravda: Ukraine’s Belarus strategy: why Kyiv is acting against US line and what Tsikhanouskaya’s visit has to do with it.
In reality, Belarus is of enormous importance to Ukraine’s security.
The Ukrainian-Belarusian border stretches for more than 1,000 kilometres. That fact alone should be enough to explain why Belarus’s future matters so much to Ukraine.
But it matters just as much to Putin, including for purely military reasons. It was from Belarusian territory that Russian troops launched their offensive on Kyiv in 2022. Today, Belarus also plays an important role in aerial attacks against Ukraine, including the coordination of long-range FPV drones and other operations.
And even after the war ends, Belarus’s future will remain one of the defining factors for Ukraine’s development. This is not only about security, although that aspect is also crucial. It is one thing to maintain readiness for a potential attack from the east; it is another to remain prepared for threats from both the east and the north.
The economic dimension is equally important.
If Belarus ceases to function as a Russian satellite, Ukraine would gain access to Baltic ports and direct export routes to the Baltic states, while also reducing its logistical dependence on Poland.
During her visit to Kyiv, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated that Ukraine and the Belarusian people share a common task: ending Russian aggression, after which the two countries would "build a European future together".
"We must understand: without a free Belarus, there can be no secure Ukraine; and without an independent and free Ukraine, there can be no democratic Belarus. Our destinies are closely intertwined," she added.
Another important point is that Belarus is one of the few countries where Ukraine could become an unquestioned geopolitical leader and, in the future, a genuine role model.
In recent months and weeks, the West has begun to shift its policy toward Belarus and Lukashenko’s dictatorship. Not everyone supports these changes; disagreements over the issue have already spilled into the media.
The United States has started significantly adjusting its approach towards Belarus and personally towards Alexander Lukashenko in the direction of rapprochement.
Media reports have already described US pressure on Vilnius to allow the resumption of exports of Belarusian fertilisers through Lithuania. So far, the Lithuanian authorities have resisted and refused to agree. But there is no guarantee that the embargo will remain in place indefinitely.
And this is where Ukraine has found itself in an unusual role.
Kyiv has categorically refused to ease pressure on Lukashenko and has instead begun publicly calling for tougher sanctions.
This represents a new geopolitical role for Ukraine.
Because in reality, this is not merely a disagreement or even confrontation with the United States. Several influential Western capitals have also begun pursuing a new approach, amounting to a form of engagement with Lukashenko.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced that Ukraine is considering introducing new sanctions proposed during the visit by the team of Belarus’s democratic forces.
Such a move by Kyiv increases the political weight of the Belarusian democratic opposition and of the Belarusian people whom it represents, rather than Lukashenko. But it is also important for Ukraine itself, as a way of maintaining Western pressure on the Belarusian dictator.