What forced Kyiv to issue an ultimatum to Lukashenko and will Ukraine strike Belarus?
The crisis in relations with Poland that unfolded over the weekend has overshadowed another escalation – one that could ultimately have far more significant consequences.
This concerns the ultimatum issued by Ukraine’s president to Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has demanded that, within a week, he remove equipment deployed near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border that helps Russia adjust and guide drone strikes against Ukraine.
Read more about how Lukashenko found himself caught between two fires and what may happen next in the article by Yurii Panchenko, European Pravda's co-founder: Lukashenko facing Ukrainian strikes: everything about Zelenskyy’s ultimatum to the Belarusian dictator.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, published on 15 June, Belarus’s self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko made a rather unexpected statement, apologising to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"Perhaps I should not have said them, considering that he is at war. Perhaps I should not have spoken so sharply," Lukashenko remarked.
Until recently, he had not been choosing his words carefully when speaking about Ukraine’s president and regularly predicted an inevitable Russian victory in the war.
In recent weeks, Minsk has tried to soften its rhetoric towards Kyiv and even proposed a meeting between Lukashenko and Zelenskyy, including one to be held in Ukraine. These notably conciliatory statements came in response to Kyiv’s reassessment of its policy towards Belarus.
Whereas until the end of last year Kyiv had sought informal understandings with Belarus and tried not to "burn bridges,", it has now shifted to openly threatening Lukashenko.
This policy adjustment has coincided with intensified Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory. Lukashenko’s changing behaviour suggests a reassessment of Russia’s ability to protect him in the event of a direct conflict with Ukraine.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has therefore issued an ultimatum demanding that Belarus dismantle the relay stations and has set a deadline for compliance.
"I think a week would be enough for him to do this. And the reason I say a week is because right now, every day, our civilians are dying and children are being wounded because of this. If he doesn’t do it, we will," Zelenskyy warned.
In his evening address the following day, he elaborated on his demands to the Belarusian authorities and made a pointed hint: "We also know about every plant in Belarus that is working for Russia and serving this war. Any enterprise supplying components for Russian weapons – for armoured vehicles, for missile systems – as well as any facility supplying Russia with fuel for this war, is all part of drawing Belarus into the war."
In essence, this amounted to an expansion of the ultimatum, albeit in a less categorical form.
The broader demand is for Lukashenko to cease all assistance to the Russian military.
At the same time, Putin is exerting pressure in the opposite direction, seeking Belarus’s full involvement in the war. Consequently, if Lukashenko were to comply with Ukraine’s ultimatum, it could trigger an extremely serious conflict between the Russian and Belarusian dictators.
A move by Lukashenko to distance himself from Russia would send a powerful signal to the remaining allies of Putin.
The Kremlin will therefore do everything possible to prevent such a scenario.
However, if Lukashenko ignores an ultimatum that Zelenskyy has publicly repeated three times, the room for maneuver may disappear for the Ukrainian president as well. In that case, Ukraine may feel compelled to follow through on its threat and disable the Belarusian relay stations itself.
In other words, it could impose "kinetic sanctions".
That, in turn, would create a major challenge for Kyiv, including the risk of a significant expansion of the front line.
Yet the fact that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reiterated his ultimatum to Lukashenko at least three times in recent days suggests that Kyiv is confident in its capabilities and prepared to raise the stakes.