How EU may change the rules for Ukrainian refugees and what to expect for men of military age
EU member states are unanimous: protection for Ukrainians will be extended. However, the rules governing that protection may change. And most likely, they will.
Member states are currently considering two options.
The first is to extend temporary protection without changing the existing conditions.
The second is to deny temporary protection to those fleeing not the war itself, but military service in Ukraine’s armed forces. This change has been proposed by several member states and, reportedly, has also been raised in informal requests from Ukraine.
On 4 June, the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will discuss, during a working lunch, an analytical paper titled "The Future Legal Status of Displaced Persons from Ukraine", which outlines the current challenges, risks and possible solutions.
Read more about the possible scenarios in the article by Tetiana Vysotska, a European Pravda correspondent in Brussels: Protection not for everyone: How the EU wants to change shelter rules for Ukrainians and what awaits men of military age.
The European Union has had to urgently abandon plans to end temporary protection status for Ukrainians in March 2027.
One reason is that the war continues and Ukrainian refugees are not rushing to return home. But there is another factor as well. European capitals have come to realise that if temporary protection expires, many Ukrainians would simply apply for asylum instead. That would place an enormous burden on national asylum systems, for which they are clearly unprepared.
At the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council meeting on 6 March 2026, ministers held what was effectively the first discussion about extending temporary protection for Ukrainians beyond the previously agreed deadline, continuing the approach in place since 2022. Following that discussion, the Cypriot Presidency prepared an analytical paper entitled "Temporary Protection – Next Steps".
"If temporary protection expires in March 2027, vulnerable groups may not have sufficient time to transition to other available legal statuses," the document stressed as its main concern.
It also noted the absence of clear mechanisms for return to Ukraine and a common solution for people with special needs.
Already in March, a majority of EU states broadly supported extending temporary protection for Ukrainians by another year. However, disagreements soon emerged over the details.
Among the proposals under discussion are denying temporary protection to Ukrainians from "safe regions" or to men of military age.
On the latter issue, EU member states appear particularly serious, and it has emerged as the leading option.
At the same time, EU officials recognise the potential challenges associated with such a decision.
Diplomats interviewed by European Pravda stress that no one is proposing to deport Ukrainian men who are already residing in the EU under temporary protection.
However, to be completely certain of this, it will be necessary to wait for the European Commission’s proposal. The Commission could, in theory, take a different approach and seek to help the Ukrainian authorities encourage some men to return home.
Following the discussion by EU interior ministers on 4 June, the European Commission is expected to quickly prepare a legislative proposal setting out the conditions (or lack of additional conditions) for extending temporary protection for Ukrainians by another year, until early March 2028.
Most likely, the proposal will include restrictions on granting this status to men of military age, probably only to those who left Ukraine in violation of national legislation.
Most diplomats interviewed by European Pravda say their governments would be prepared to support such a step as a gesture of solidarity with the Ukrainian armed forces, which need reinforcements and continued support. Officials at the European Commission also indicate that they intend to introduce such restrictions and believe they have a sound legal basis for doing so.
A final decision is expected in July 2026.