What surprises did Sweden's election bring and who can form the next government?
A victory with a bitter taste and certainty without certainty – that is the first takeaway from Sunday’s Swedish parliamentary election.
As the polls predicted, the gap between the opposition "red-green" parties and the governing right-wing Tidö coalition turned out to be minimal. At one point during the vote count, the opposition was ahead by just one seat.
As more votes were counted, the gap widened again and the opposition’s victory began to look more convincing.
Read more about the preliminary results from Sweden’s parliamentary election and how power could change in Stockholm in the article by Maria Yemets, a European Pravda journalist: A left-wing victory in Sweden: what the election showed and will there be a socialist government?
The preliminary results, based on 95% of the votes counted, confirmed the lead of the Social Democrats and their most likely coalition partners.
But overall uncertainty over the political makeup of Sweden’s future government remains.
The narrow gap between the opposition parties and the coalition parties means that even the remaining uncounted votes could still affect the final distribution of seats.
Based on the current results, the opposition bloc would have 176 seats, while the governing Tidö coalition would have 173, with just over 30,000 votes separating them.
Diaspora and postal votes, which are still missing from the final tally, will not be fully counted before Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest, while the final official results are expected in roughly a week.
But the final numbers are only one part of the intrigue. There is also uncertainty over how the "middle" parties – above all the Centre Party – will be able to reach agreements among themselves and with potential prime ministers.
The opposition Social Democrats, led by Magdalena Andersson, won the largest share of the vote by a comfortable margin (around 28%) and will be the largest parliamentary group in the Riksdag.
The Moderates, led by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, came second, with around 20% of the vote.
The biggest surprise of the election was the poor performance of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, who received 17.5%. That is significantly below the party’s ambitious expectations.
Despite Magdalena Andersson’s formal victory, the leader of the Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, has made clear that he does not consider the result a defeat and is not giving up on his chances of forming a government; he predicts difficult negotiations.
The Tidö parties (the Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals and Sweden Democrats) together have fewer votes than they need for a majority and will require support from another party, potentially the Centre Party. However, the Centre Party has consistently stressed that it is not prepared to accept the Sweden Democrats’ participation in government.
Forming a coalition led by Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson also presents its own problems. Such a majority would require the simultaneous participation of both the Centre Party and the Left Party, between which there are numerous ideological differences. During the campaign, the Centre Party said it would not support a government involving the Left Party, while the Left Party said it would not support a government unless it was invited to join it.
However, the Centre Party has signalled that it is open to a coalition with Magdalena Andersson.
Will the "middle" parties be willing to compromise, and with whom? Or will it all end with a "left-wing" or "right-wing" minority government? The answer will depend on the final vote count and the negotiations that follow.
For Ukraine, however, the key point is that Sweden’s support will undoubtedly remain strong, regardless of the name of the next prime minister. A broad political and public consensus in support of Kyiv has taken shape in the country.