How could the midterm elections hurt Trump and do they matter for Ukraine?
According to the latest forecasts, control of the House of Representatives is almost certain to pass to Trump’s political opponents, the Democrats. The situation in the Senate is somewhat more complicated, but the Republican Party has relatively little reason for optimism there either.
Read more about the expectation from the congressional elections in the article by Olha Kovalchuk, a European Pravda journalist: Is the US preparing a verdict on Trump? Everything you need to know about the Democrats’ chances of taking Congress and the consequences for Ukraine.
Midterm elections to Congress are often described as a referendum on the sitting president. In these elections, Americans choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives for two years and one-third of the Senate (33 or 34 senators) for six years. A number of states also elect their governors.
Traditionally, the party opposed to the sitting president makes gains in midterm elections to the House of Representatives. This is easily explained by the inevitable disappointment of some voters with the government’s policies. In general, these elections serve as a check on presidential power: the president enjoys a "window of opportunity" during the first half of their term, but if they fail to meet voters’ expectations, their freedom of action becomes more restricted after the elections.
The cost of living is always one of the most important issues in US election campaigns. These elections, however, are different because the culprit behind the problems is relatively obvious.
Despite Trump’s desperate attempts to blame rising oil prices on Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries in Russia, American voters link the problem to the US war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts broadly agree that these elections are less about a "blue wave" than a "red retreat".
In other words, voters are more likely to be voting against Trump’s policies than voting in favour of the Democrats.
The House of Representatives is most likely to come under Democratic control. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority: 218 seats, plus one independent who votes with the Republicans, compared with 214 seats held by the Democrats.
The race in Florida’s 13th Congressional District may be of particular interest to Ukrainians. Incumbent Republican congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, a prominent Trump loyalist, is seeking reelection there. She is known for her openly anti-Ukrainian stance, for organising visits by Russian officials to Congress, and for meeting with Putin’s special envoy.
Her opponent is Leila Grey, a Democratic candidate and retired Army brigadier general whose position on Ukraine is diametrically opposed to Luna’s. Polls have alternately predicted victories for Luna and Grey, with the gap between the candidates remaining narrow.
Democratic Congressman Eugene Vindman, who is of Ukrainian descent, is also expected to win reelection to the House of Representatives. In an interview with European Pravda last month, he explained how the midterm elections could affect US support for Ukraine.
The Senate race is somewhat more complicated, but the Republican Party has relatively little reason for optimism there either. In the midterm elections, Americans vote on only one-third of the seats in the upper chamber. Under these circumstances, every seat could prove decisive for either party.
Democrats have promised that, if they triumph in the elections, they will accelerate the delivery of military aid to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, despite these encouraging signals, a dramatic shift in US policy towards the Russian-Ukrainian war should not be expected.
The US president will remain the primary decision-maker on foreign policy, and the new Congress will not begin its work until January next year. Until then, both Ukraine and its European allies will have to weather the storm of the election campaign on the other side of the Atlantic and deal with its consequences.